Sprinkles from the Left
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“The most basic principles of democracy are that the candidate who gets the most votes is elected and that every voter gets an equal say in an election’s outcome. The California system for voting in a recall election violates these principles and should be declared unconstitutional.
Unless that happens, on Sept. 14, voters will be asked to cast a ballot on two questions: Should Gov. Gavin Newsom be recalled and removed from office? If so, which of the candidates on the ballot should replace him?
The first question is decided by a majority vote… But the latter question is decided by a plurality, and whichever candidate gets the most votes, even if it is much less than a majority, becomes the next governor.
Critically, Mr. Newsom is not on the ballot for the second question.
By conducting the recall election in this way, Mr. Newsom can receive far more votes than any other candidate but still be removed from office…
That scenario is not a wild hypothetical. Based on virtually every opinion poll, Mr. Newsom seems likely to have more votes to keep him in office than any other candidate will receive to replace him. But he may well lose the first question on the recall, effectively disenfranchising his supporters on the second question.
This is not just nonsensical and undemocratic. It is unconstitutional. It violates a core constitutional principle that has been followed for over 60 years: Every voter should have an equal ability to influence the outcome of the election… The Constitution simply does not permit replacing a governor with a less popular candidate.”Erwin Chemerinsky is the dean of the School of Law at the University of California, Berkeley, and the author of the forthcoming book “Presumed Guilty: How the Supreme Court Empowered the Police and Subverted Civil Rights.” Aaron S. Edlin is a professor of law and of economics at Berkeley. (Published in the NYT)
“An initial glance at new CBS polling numbers seems to suggest decent news for Newsom, with majority of registered voters (54%) saying they don’t think he should be recalled and 46% saying he should.
But dig a little deeper and the problem for Newsom becomes much more apparent. Among likely voters, just 52% oppose the Newsom recall while 48% support it.
And therein lies the problem for Newsom…
Democrats — even those who would consider themselves part of the activist base of the party — have not been heavily focused on the recall at least in part because the expectation was that Newsom, who still has generally positive job approval numbers, wasn’t in any real danger.
Base Republicans, on the other hand, have spearheaded the effort to get the recall on the ballot in the first place and view knocking off Newsom as a cause rather than just a campaign…
It’s possible, of course, that the increased urgency — and the polling that shows Newsom could well be recalled — shakes Democrats out of their summer stupor…
But the CBS poll is rightly read as a major alarm flashing for Newsom and his party in California. A low-turnout election quite clearly puts him in danger. And at the moment, that is a real possibility.”Chris Cillizza, CNN
Sprinkles from the Right
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“Often politicians can often overcome bad policies – but not bad personalities – and that is the biggest problem Newsom faces. He is not liked.
Why is Newsom in trouble? A good deal of it is the result of his bad policies.
Chief among them is the crime sweeping the state. So much so that a stunning 65% of “Californians believe that crime is getting worse, while 29% say it is the same or diminishing”… In a separate poll, 41% of Democrats gave Newsom a “D” or an “F” on homelessness…
The list can go on and on, including job flight out of the state. All of those policies affect every Californian – as did Newsom’s draconian COVID shutdowns.
In the final analysis, however, Newsom’s arrogance will bring him down as much as anything.
The nation knows of his dinner with lobbyist friends at the uber-expensive French Laundry restaurant in violation of Newsom’s own COVID rules… Still not deterred by that embarrassment, Newsom sent one of his children to a summer camp that violated the governor’s masking rules. Rules for thee, but not for me…
The vast majority of Californians are also quite aware of his arrogance. They know the effects of his policies, they recall his treatment of them over the years, and personally dislike him – that will be his downfall when he is recalled on Sept. 14.”Tom Del Beccaro, chairman of the RescueCalifornia.org political action committee that is supporting the recall of California Gov. Gavin Newsom. (Published in Fox News)
“Democrats realize their biggest challenge in winning California’s September 14 recall election is Governor Gavin Newsom himself.
The latest Emerson College survey shows the recall failing among likely voters by only 46 percent to 48 percent… A recent Public Opinion Strategies poll found that 57 percent of voters give Newsom a D or an F on homelessness, and 49 percent give him the same low grades on controlling the state’s cost of living.
Democrats realize that all this creates a turnout problem. Newsom’s critics can’t wait to fill out their recall ballots and express their frustration with him. Loyal Democrats don’t want to remove him from office, but they are either indifferent about voting or believe the recall can’t possibly succeed. A recent Los Angeles Times poll found 80 percent of registered Republican voters were likely to vote in September compared to only 55 percent of Democrats.”
Democrats think they can overcome this “energy deficit.” Emergency pandemic election regulations have been extended so that every registered voter will get a ballot in the mail. That will allow Democrats to kick their ballot-harvesting machine into gear…
The recall election will offer California voters a real choice on the direction of their state. COVID lockdowns, closed schools, rising crime, homelessness, and high taxes are finally forcing the state’s media and voters to focus on substance for a change.”John Fund, National Review