Good morning. In today’s edition:

• 📈 Economists up recession risks
• 🐶 New popular dog breed
• ⚔️ D’Artagnan remains discovered

…and much more.

Ready, Set, Go: Today’s news should be a ~4.09-minute read (1,088 words).

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“People find it far easier to forgive others for being wrong than being right.”

–Albus Dumbledore (1881-1997)

The mood on Wall Street is starting to shift toward fears of an upcoming recession.

In recent weeks, a number of major Wall Street firms have raised their odds of the US having an economic recession—defined as a significant widespread decline in economic activity lasting at least a few months—at some point in the next year.

The list includes Moody’s Analytics (rising to ~49%), Goldman Sachs (30%), Wilmington Trust (45%), and EY Parthenon (40%).

• These predictions are far from a certainty, remaining below 50% across the board.
• But they represent a step up from normal times, when recession odds hover around 20%, signaling an elevated level of risk for the current US economy.

Why are economists spooked?

The Iran war has contributed to a $1.00 increase in average US gas prices over the past month to reach $3.98/gallon (+34%), per AAA. Experts say a prolonged war could keep oil prices high through Q2, potentially pushing the economy into recession.

Additionally, the US jobs market appears to be weakening, even as the unemployment rate holds steady.

• The economy added just 116,000 jobs in all of 2025, and lost 92,000 in February alone, per the Department of Labor.
• While healthcare has added more than 700,000 jobs over the past year, most other sectors have gone the other direction, shedding over half a million positions.

Economic growth also isn’t providing much backup. America’s GDP rose just 0.7% in Q4 of last year and is tracking around 2% this quarter, weaker than many expected coming into 2026.

On the flip side: Research indicates recession forecasts are unreliable at predicting future events, while other economic indicators like the yield curve have sent repeated false recession signals dating back to 2022.

US consumer spending has also held strong in recent months and years, boosted by rising asset values and stock market gains, while a sustained rise in production is another factor in the economy’s favor.

Looking ahead…Some analysts project the US economy will see a boost in the coming months, as effects from last year’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” start to take effect. The package is designed to boost economic growth via looser regulations and larger tax refunds.

📊 Flash poll: In your opinion, will the US experience a recession at some point over the next four quarters?

• Yes
• No
• Unsure/other

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Here are five stats from this past week that made our team go “whoa.” Hopefully you will, too.

💼 Just 27% of US college grads say now is a good time to find a quality job, compared to 44% of Americans who didn’t graduate from college. It’s the widest gap on record going back to 2001.

🤳 Snapchat users sent nearly 2 trillion snaps last year, averaging out to ~5.5 billion/day, the company revealed this week.

🐶 Dachshunds broke America’s top-5 most popular dog breeds for the first time in 20+ years, while registrations for French bulldogs cooled slightly but remained #1.

🪐 Astronomers discovered clusters of new moons around Jupiter and Saturn, boosting their total moon counts to 101 and 285, respectively.

📺 The number of unscripted reality TV series in the US has fallen by a third since 2022, including a 15% drop last year alone.

BUSINESS & MARKETS

• 📉 US stocks close down across the board as Nasdaq enters correction territory, or 10%+ below a recent high. (S&P: -1.7% | Dow: -1.0% | Nasdaq: -2.4%)
• 🏘️ Average 30-year mortgage rates rise for fourth straight week to reach 6.38%; it comes after rates fell below 6% for the first time in years in late February.
• 📈 OECD projects US inflation will rise to 4.2% this year, up 1.2 percentage points from its previous projection in December; group also expects US inflation to ease to 1.6% by end of 2027, down 0.7 points from last forecast.

SPORTS, MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT

• 🏟️ International Olympic Committee to ban transgender women from competing in the female category starting with the 2028 LA Olympics; move will establish mandatory DNA-based sex test once in a female athlete's career (via cheek swab).
• 🙏 Tracy Kidder, Pulitzer-winning author of The Soul of a New Machine, dies at age 80. | ⭐️ Ryan Gosling to star in untitled Universal Pictures film directed by the Daniels, the Oscar-winning duo behind Everything Everywhere All at Once.
• 🏀 Men’s Sweet Sixteen tipped off last night, with action continuing tonight; the Elite Eight will take place across Saturday and Sunday. | Women’s Sweet Sixteen is tonight and tomorrow, with Elite Eight action on Sunday-Monday.

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SCIENCE, SPACE & EMERGING TECH

• 🏆 Dutch scientist Huub Lelieveld wins 2026 World Food Prize for his pioneering work establishing modern food safety standards and free trade of safe food; Lelieveld is credited with preventing millions of cases of foodborne illness and reducing food waste.
• 🤖 Humanoid robot from Figure AI escorts First Lady Melania Trump into East Room, marking the first time such a machine has been inside the White House.
• 🪐 NASA’s flagship space telescopes—James Webb and Hubble—teamed up to capture the most comprehensive view of Saturn ever recorded.

US, WORLD & POLITICS

• 💥 Iran war: Iran allows several Pakistan-flagged oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, in gesture President Trump calls a “present” to the US that shows Iran is serious about negotiating; Trump later says he’s extending pause on strikes against Iran energy sites for 10 more days at the request of Iranians, who wish negotiations to continue; Israel says it killed the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy, who was “directly responsible” for mining and blocking the Strait of Hormuz
• 🏛️ Congress remains at odds over a potential deal to end the ongoing DHS shutdown, after lawmakers from both parties each rejected the other’s latest offer; Congress is scheduled for a two-week recess beginning today.
• 🇺🇸 Population growth is slowing in most US counties nationwide amid a significant drop in immigration, new Census Bureau data shows; overall US population grew by 0.5% between July 2024-25, down from 1% over the previous period.

👆Archaeologists believe they may have uncovered the remains of Charles de Batz de Castelmore underneath a church in the Netherlands. While that name may not ring a bell, his alter-ego probably does: D’Artagnan, the swaggering swordsman who inspired The Three Musketeers.

🤔 Did you know? Buzz Lightyear was almost named Lunar Larry. Early concept art and sketches of the Disney/Pixar character show the space cadet wearing a red-and-white suit with an “LL” belt buckle. The character eventually evolved into Buzz Lightyear sometime during pre-production.

📰 Worth a read: There’s one Clear winner from the long TSA wait times at airports

🖱️ What we’re clicking:

• 2026 is all about the “whycation”
• Fungi enthusiasts try to contain unstoppable mushroom
• How to stop being so defensive (even if you’re right)

How well did you pay attention this week? Find out here.

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1. What is the value of 18 + 6 ÷ 3 × 2?
2. A cake needs to bake for 35 minutes, then cool for 1 hour and 20 minutes. If you put the cake in the oven at 2:15 PM, what time is it ready to serve?
3. The ratio of red to blue marbles is 3:5. If there are 40 marbles total, how many are blue?

🏅 15-year-old Devon Champenoy just received the Honor Medal with Crossed Palms for unusual heroism, an award given fewer than 300 times in the century-long history of the Boy Scouts. The Texan was only 13 years old when he saved his scout leader's life in a rafting accident.

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2. 4:10 PM
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