Good morning. In today’s edition:

• 📈 Prediction markets’ rapid rise
• 🎭 Sinners makes Oscars history
• 🏨 First-ever hotel on the Moon

…and much more.

Ready, Set, Go: Today’s news should be a ~4.34-minute read (1,020 words).

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“If you are patient in one moment of anger, you will escape a hundred days of sorrow.”

–Chinese proverb (Unknown)

We’ve all had that moment of thinking: “There’s a 0% chance this meeting ends on time.”

Prediction markets, one of the fastest-growing trading segments in the US economy, turn that same gut feeling into a financial instrument, except the stakes are a bit higher than office resentment.

How prediction markets work

Platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket—and similar offerings from Robinhood, DraftKings, FanDuel, and more—essentially represent stock markets for future events. Instead of buying shares in companies, users buy contracts tied to yes‑or‑no outcomes like: “Will inflation fall below 3% this year?” or “Will Trump win the election?”

Each contract trades between $0 and $1. The price reflects investors’ estimate of how likely an event is to happen: $0.20 implies a 20% chance, while $0.90 implies 90%. If the event happens, the winning contract pays out $1.

• Unlike conventional sportsbooks, prediction markets don’t act as the house and pay out to winners.
• They instead match buyers and sellers on both sides of a question and make money via transaction fees, a structure supporters say creates unusually honest forecasts.
• Prediction markets are legal across America, and aren’t covered by laws in 28 states that ban online gambling.

All bets are on

Once a niche tool for political junkies, prediction markets have exploded into the mainstream. Nearly $12 billion traded across Kalshi and Polymarket in December alone, up more than 400% from a year earlier.

That surge has caught the attention of major media companies in recent months.

• Kalshi partnered with CNN and CNBC to integrate their real‑time probabilities into news reports and live broadcasts.
• Polymarket struck a distribution deal with Dow Jones, making its data available across the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and other media outlets.
• Google now shows prediction‑market odds in its search results and finance tools.

It’s also attracted negative attention. Critics of the growing prediction market industry—including conventional casino operators and state regulators—argue prediction markets blur the line between forecasting and gambling, and technically violate state anti-gambling laws.

• Detractors also cite worries about the possibility of insider trading and market manipulation.
• In one high‑profile case, an anonymous Polymarket user placed a large bet that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would fall just hours before he was captured, earning a $400,000+ payday and raising questions about potential insider info.

Supporters counter that prediction markets are fundamentally different from sportsbooks and provide real-world value, with odds that typically outperform traditional polls. “People don’t lie when money’s involved,” says Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour.

Big picture: Investors are betting big on prediction markets themselves. Kalshi recently raised new funding at an $11 billion valuation, while Polymarket is valued around $9 billion after new backing from Intercontinental Exchange (which owns the NYSE).

📊 Flash poll: Have you ever used a prediction market like Kalshi or Polymarket?

• Yes, to place a bet
• Yes, but only to check real-time odds
• No

+Note: Kalshi is a sponsor of DONUT Press Media. Our newsroom is kept 100% separate from our advertising operations.

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Here are five stats from this past week that made our team go “whoa.” Hopefully you will, too.

🚨 Murders fell 21% last year in 35 large US cities, marking the biggest one-year drop on record and likely the lowest rate since at least 1900. Overall, drug crimes (+7%) were the lone category of crime to rise in the past year.

💒 The average wedding party has shrunk to eight people (four per side), down from 10 in 2019, according to research from wedding newsletter The Knot reported by Axios.

🤖🎶 Over half of Americans between the ages of 18-44 say they listen to between 2.5 and 3 hours of AI-created music every week.

📰📲 The New York Times debuted its 11th game and first multiplayer game this week—a Scrabble-like offering called Crossplay, which will join a roster of puzzles that were collectively played 11.2+ billion times last year.

🛋️ More than one-fifth of Americans (21.8%) report doing zero physical activity or exercise outside of their job, per a new United Health Foundation report.

BUSINESS & MARKETS

• 🏦 President Trump sues JPMorgan Chase and its CEO Jamie Dimon for $5 billion over allegations that the nation’s largest bank improperly closed his accounts over the “woke” belief that it needed to distance itself from Trump following the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot.
• 📈 Personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s main gauge of inflation, stood at 2.8% in November for both headline and core, roughly in line with analysts’ expectations.
• 📧 Microsoft experienced an outage for Outlook and various other Office apps yesterday afternoon and into the evening; users were prevented from logging in or sending/receiving emails.

SPORTS, MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT

• 🥇 Sinners earns the title of most nominated film in Oscars history, with 16 nods including Best Picture and Best Actor.
• 🏈 Baltimore Ravens hire Chargers DC Jesse Minter as their new head coach; Minter replaces John Harbaugh, who was fired this month after 18 years leading the Ravens.
• ⚾ Texas Rangers acquire All-Star SP Mackenzie Gore from Washington Nationals in exchange for a package of five prospects. | New York Mets acquire All-Star SP Freddy Peralta from Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for two top prospects.

There’s power in the moment before a reaction, when you stop trying to fix yourself and simply notice what’s happening. Mindful offers evidence-informed practices that help you pause, build awareness, and respond with intention.

You also get podcast episodes for guided meditation and insights on the latest science-backed techniques for support throughout the day. Whether you have 30 seconds or 30 minutes, Mindful can help build clearer perspective and thoughtful responses.

SCIENCE, SPACE & EMERGING TECH

• 🪨 World’s oldest cave painting discovered in Indonesia, per new study published in Nature; the image, which shows a stencilled outline of a hand, dates back at least 67,800 years.
• ☄️ Space debris falling out of orbit is often lost by tracking instruments as it plummets to Earth—but a new study demonstrates how it can instead be tracked by the sonic booms emitted by space debris streaking through the atmosphere.
• 🎗️ Cancer death rates in Americans under age 50 fell by 44% over the past three decades, per new study from the American Cancer Society; a notable exception was colorectal cancer, which increased to become the leading cause of cancer death in that age group.

US, WORLD & POLITICS

• 🌍 President Trump holds signing ceremony in Davos, Switzerland, for his “Board of Peace” intended to oversee the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip; countries including the UAE, Hungary, and Pakistan joined the ceremony, while other countries like Germany, the UK, and Canada were absent.
• 🗳️ House committee votes to hold former President Bill Clinton (D) and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) in contempt of Congress for refusing to appear for depositions in the committee’s investigation into Jeffrey Epstein; the full House will now consider the contempt resolutions.
• 🏛️ Jack Smith, former special counsel who oversaw two criminal investigations into President Trump during the Biden admin, testified publicly for the first time before a House committee.

☝️ 150+ million years before the dinosaurs ever roamed the Earth, tall spire-shaped life-forms called Prototaxites covered our planet’s surface. These organisms were long believed to be in the fungus family—but a recent study suggests Prototaxites were actually a completely new type of lifeform that’s now extinct on our planet.

🤔 Did you know? The first McDonald’s drive-thru didn’t launch until 1975, after a location near a US Army base added an outdoor pickup window to serve soldiers since they weren’t allowed to leave their cars while dressed in uniform.

📰 Worth a read: Who were the Daughters of Liberty?

🖱️ What we’re clicking:

• 6 basic hygiene habits you've probably been doing wrong your whole life
• GRU is planning the first-ever hotel on the Moon
• The best and worst airlines of 2025

🖼️ Made to endure… Furniture and decor change over time, but framed photos stand the test of time. ArtToFrames offers quality frames in styles that match your taste, priced for every budget. Save 10% at ArtToFrames with code DONUT25.

How well did you pay attention this week? Find out here.

👀 Read: Explore Amazon’s plan to change how viewers watch the NFL.

🎙️ Listen: NPR’s Throughline podcast explains how the discovery of what killed the dinosaurs in 1980 inspired Cold War-era leaders to try and escape the same fate.

🍝 Yummy…medicine? With cold and flu season upon us, check out this dish lovingly referred to as “Italian Penicillin.”

🧰 Attention DIYers: How to fix loose door hinges.

💼🚀 The single best thing you can do for your career…Subscribe to the Assist. The 4x weekly newsletter is packed with resources and info that will help your professional life immensely. And it’s enjoyable! Subscribe free to the Assist.*

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