Good morning. In today’s edition:

• 🗳️ Midterm spending kicks into overdrive
• 🗣️ Great debate disappearance
• ⛓️ Diddy moved to solitary confinement

…and much more.

Ready, Set, Go: Today’s news should be a ~3.50-minute read (932 words).

P.S.: Our news quiz will return next week; stay tuned!

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“Anyone who wants to achieve a dream must stay strong, focused and steady.”

–Estée Lauder (1908-2004)

With Election Day just 32 days out, the midterms are now entering their final, increasingly expensive stretch. Republican- and Democratic-aligned groups alike are pouring millions of dollars into competitive races ahead of the November 3 election, as they make a final push to sway voters.

Follow the money

Texas represents the high end of a spending surge playing out across competitive races nationwide. A newly formed Republican PAC spent $131+ million in a recent 17-day period (~$7.7M/day) to support Texas GOP Senate candidate Ken Paxton, including $61.4 million in ads over two days.

The political spending has continued in full swing across the country this week:

• Democrats booked nearly $6 million in ads in North Carolina and $4.2 million in Georgia, while Republicans had $3.7 million and $3.1 million booked in those states, respectively.
• Meanwhile, Republican groups booked $51.9 million in ads across Texas and Ohio, compared with $10.2 million from Democratic groups.

Overall, Republicans and their allies have ~$888 million in ads planned through Election Day, versus ~$666 million for Democrats, per a CNBC analysis of FEC filings last week

State of play

Republicans currently hold a 218-214 advantage in the House (1 Independent, 2 vacancies), with Democrats needing to win at least 218 of 435 seats up for grabs in November to take back the majority. Cook Political Report currently projects Democrats to gain between 5-15 House seats, resulting in a 220-to-230-seat majority.

In the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage, just 35 seats are up for election. Republicans are slight favorites to control the Senate in Cook’s latest midterm projections, which favor the GOP to end up holding 47 seats, Democrats to hold 46 seats, and have 7 races rated as tossups (AK, IA, ME, MI, NH, OH, and TX).

What do the polls say?... Currently an estimated 50.6% of voters favor a Democratic candidate for Congress, while 42.3% favor a Republican candidate while the remaining 7.1% are undecided or support a third party candidate, per RealClearPolitics’ polling aggregator.

Still, polls don’t always match the final results and Pew Research Center has found that Republicans are currently somewhat less likely than Democrats to participate in surveys, which can make capturing the electorate more difficult.

Looking ahead…For some Americans, voting is already underway. Virginia began in-person early voting on Sept. 18, with Minnesota and South Dakota also kicking off absentee voting that day. More states will follow throughout October, including Georgia (10/13), North Carolina (10/15), and Texas (10/19).

📊 Flash poll: If the midterm election was held today, which political party’s candidate would you vote for?

• Republican
• Democrat
• Third party
• Unsure/other

Fifty minutes into the meeting, you've filled a page, and the best parts read: "follow up w/ ???", an acronym you can't decode, and "HIGHLY IMPORTANT" followed by… nothing. Turns out you can't listen and write at once, at least not well.

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Here are five stats from this past week that made our team go “whoa.” Hopefully you will, too.

🚶 The average American in the country’s 100 largest cities walked 151 miles in 2024, with that total varying widely depending on the area, per a new report from research firm StreetLight.

🗣️ Of the 36 governor positions up for election this year, 21 of the races won’t see a debate between the two major-party candidates. That figure is up from 8/36 gubernatorial races without debates in the 2022 midterms, and 2/36 races in 2018.

🏛️💰 If US interest rates grow to 1 percentage point above projections, as they already roughly are today, the federal government’s debt would grow to 222% of GDP by 2056, instead of 175% of GDP as currently projected.

🌎 Despite hosting the World Cup, the US saw ~2 million fewer overseas visitors this summer, down ~20% from a peak in 2019, per US Travel Association president and CEO Geoff Freeman.

🤖💼 Some 11 million American workers (~7% of all current employees) may need to change jobs over the next decade as the economy adapts to the AI era, new McKinsey Global Institute estimate finds.

BUSINESS & MARKETS

• 🏘️ Average 30-year mortgage rates see biggest weekly jump in four years, rising to 7.28% compared to 7.03% last week, according to Freddie Mac.
• 🤖 Anthropic is targeting an IPO date as soon as mid-November at a valuation of $1.8 trillion–$2 trillion, per new Bloomberg report.
• 👟 Nike reports mixed earnings results for its fiscal Q1 and announces a new restructuring plan, which will lead to layoffs starting next year.

SPORTS, MEDIA, & ENTERTAINMENT

• ⚾ Atlanta Braves win deciding Game 3 over Philadelphia Phillies to advance to Divisional Round, which begins Saturday.
• ⛓️ Sean “Diddy” Combs placed in solitary confinement following NBC News report on his VIP prison lifestyle.
• 🏈 Pittsburgh Steelers trade star CB Joey Porter Jr. to the Dallas Cowboys for future 2nd- and 6th-round picks.

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SCIENCE, SPACE, & EMERGING TECH

• 🦖 Feathered raptor species recently discovered in north-eastern China suggests flight may have evolved independently in animals at least twice, per new study.
• ✍️ California Gov. Gavin Newsom signs new AI regulation banning employers in the state from relying solely on AI to fire or discipline workers.
• 🎗️ Digital health company Everlywell begins rolling out Clarity Breast, a new FDA-approved AI tool that can predict patients’ five-year risk of developing breast cancer.

US, WORLD, & POLITICS

• 🚨 Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee halts all executions in the state after Christa Pike, a woman convicted of murder, survives two doses of lethal injection before being rushed to hospital; she’s the first person ever to survive lethal doses of execution drugs, officials say.
• ⚖️ Renee Good's family files two civil lawsuits over her fatal shooting by an ICE officer during the federal government’s Operation Metro Surge in Minneapolis, targeting the US government along with current and former officials.
• 🏛️ DOJ is reviewing whether former President Richard Nixon and his associates were unfairly treated by the special prosecutor’s office that investigated the Watergate break-in.

☝️ Casa Encantada, once prized as one of Los Angeles’s grandest homes, was sold for $130 million in July to a mystery buyer—who this week was revealed as billionaire entrepreneur Peter Thiel, according to the WSJ.

🤔 Did you know? Some 40% of the 1.5 million people who were forced to evacuate due to Hurricane Katrina were never able to return to their previous homes, with the New Orleans population still not recovering to pre-Katrina levels.

📰 Worth a read: Why barcodes are about to go extinct

🖱️ What we’re clicking:

• How 7% mortgages are wrecking the home-buyer playbook
• Ranking the world’s best employers
• Staying connected can help your grandparents age well

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1. A number is multiplied by 3, then 14 is added. The result is 65. What is the number?
2. A basketball player makes 70% of his first 20 shots. He then makes his next 5 shots. What percentage of all 25 shots did he make?
3. A family has a rectangular patio that measures 15 feet by 12 feet. They want to place square tiles that measure 3 feet on each side across the entire patio. How many tiles will they need?

(keep scrolling for the answer)

🐿️ Retired guidance counselor Nancy Rose has spent the past 15 years photographing backyard squirrels in miniature homemade scenes, capturing them “drinking” tea, taking baths, bowling, and more.

The 72-year-old’s adorable hobby has inspired a series of children’s books, calendars, and puzzles, while introducing her to a whole community of fellow squirrel lovers.

1. 17
2. 76%
3. 20 tiles

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