Predictions markets are spoiling reality TV shows

Anyone looking to avoid spoilers to the next season of Love Island may have to invent a time machine to accomplish their goal, per a new Variety report.

Prediction markets have spoiled the results of several recent pre-taped reality TV shows, including the recent finale Survivor 50—often before a single episode of the new season has even aired.

Spoiler alert: results aren’t a secret

Fans who glanced at odds for Survivor 50 on prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket before the season began airing saw overwhelming odds (80%+) for a certain contestant, who ended up winning the $2 million prize.

• Kalshi even sent out a push notification moments before the Survivor 50 finale on Wednesday night drawing attention to that contestant’s 97% odds to win.
• In recent weeks, Kalshi users have also correctly predicted the winners of the latest seasons of The Masked Singer and Next Level Chef.

Predictions market officials say traders appear to be acting on spoiler information already circulating online, as opposed to show or network insiders placing large bets.

Zoom out: Americans now trust prediction markets and similar sportsbooks or trading platforms more than some of the country’s best-known companies, according to new data from the 2026 Axios Harris Poll 100 reputation rankings.

Polymarket notched a higher rating in the poll (#45) than dozens of major US companies, including Disney, Verizon, Ford, Target, Uber, and Bank of America. Investment platform Robinhood, which offers prediction market services through Kalshi, ranked #42.