Go vote – all the cool kids are doing it

The 2022 general election is less than two weeks away. And so far, it’s on track to set a modern-era record for midterm voter turnout, per new data from the University of Florida's US Elections Project.

🗳️ Background: Over the past few decades, some 40% of eligible Americans have voted during midterm election years, while ~60% voted during presidential elections, per nonprofit Fair Vote.

• But those numbers have been trending upwards in recent years. Both 2018 and 2020 saw the highest voter turnout in over a century, at 53% and 67%, respectively – and 2022 shows no signs of slowing down.

🔢 By the numbers… As of Tuesday (two weeks ‘til Election Day), 9+ million Americans had already voted in the upcoming midterms (up from 2 million last week). For context, that number was ~5 million at the same point in 2018.

• This year, nearly 70% of early ballots have been sent via mail, with the other 30% cast in person.
• Of the states that record party registration, more Democrats (48.7%) have voted early than Republicans (31.0%) due to a large gap in mail-in ballots, a trend also seen in 2020.

📊 What do the polls say?... In generic polling, Republicans appear to have pulled ahead of Democrats, gaining a ~2% lead this month per RealClearPolitics.

• FiveThirtyEight projects there’s a 45% chance Republicans take control of the Senate, and a 81% chance the GOP wins back the House (compared to 33% and 69% when we last covered the midterms three weeks ago).