The first presidential debate is here

Later tonight, President Biden and former President Trump will face off on-stage in the first presidential debate of the 2024 election season.

The showdown, which kicks off at 9 pm ET on CNN, will be moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. It also carries a few rules:

• No live audience (unlike typical debates)
• Microphones will be muted unless candidates are directed to speak
• Candidates aren’t allowed to bring pre-written notes or props

Why the debate is a big deal: Research suggests presidential candidates’ debate performances – and the surrounding media attention – can significantly impact the choices of undecided voters.

And, in the rare instances where a candidate commits a significant gaffe or is clearly outperformed, evidence shows it has a lasting effect on their approval rating.

Zoom out: Last week, Biden pulled ahead of Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average for the first time this election cycle; he currently holds a 40.8%-40.7% lead. Both figures have remained relatively consistent since the beginning of March, with Biden and Trump remaining separated by less than two percentage points.

• Trump holds a 37%-35% polling lead over Biden in seven key swing states that experts say will likely decide the race (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, and WI), per the latest Ipsos polling data.

👀 Looking ahead… Trump is expected to announce his pick for vice president shortly before or during the Republican National Convention, which takes place July 15-18.