Trump selects a running mate (and other major storylines)

Yesterday, former President Trump revealed his 2024 vice presidential running mate: Ohio Senator JD Vance, a politician known for supporting the style and views of Trump’s conservative populist movement.

• In his announcement, Trump signaled that Senator Vance, the 39-year-old former venture capitalist and author of Hillbilly Elegy, could help appeal to voters in crucial Midwest battleground states.

Outside of a new running mate, other storylines have emerged in the aftermath of Saturday’s failed assassination attempt against Trump:

The Secret Service is under major scrutiny. Congressional lawmakers from both parties are moving to open investigations into the Secret Service’s security lapses at Trump’s rally, including how the shooter was able to obtain rooftop access less than 450 feet from Trump’s position. An eyewitness video also shows some Trump rally attendees noticed the gunman on a nearby roof at least one minute before he opened fire, and unsuccessfully tried to alert law enforcement.

History indicates Trump will likely see a polling boost. When President Ronald Reagan survived an assassination attempt in March 1981 – the most recent shooting of a US president or major candidate prior to Trump – his approval rating increased from 60% to 68% over the next two months. However, Reagan’s polling boost was short-lived, and by the end of the year his approval rating had fallen below 50%.

Trump’s RNC plans have changed. In an interview on Sunday, Trump said he completely rewrote his upcoming speech at the Republican National Convention following his shooting, and now plans to focus more on national unity and less on his political opponents.

👀 Looking ahead… Trump is set to deliver this RNC speech on Thursday evening.