GOP wins key House election, but smaller margin gives Dems hope

On Tuesday night, GOP candidate Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn in a special election for a vacant House seat in a Nashville-area district in Tennessee, in an election widely seen as a barometer for the current US political climate.

The results: While Van Epps won by a comfortable 9-point margin of victory, it was smaller than other recent GOP election wins in the heavily red-leaning district.

• The election was to fill the seat vacated by Rep. Mark Green, who won by 20+ points in the past two elections, but left Congress earlier this year to take a private sector job.
• President Trump also carried the district by a 22-point margin one year ago, in the only presidential election under the current lines.

Good news, bad news

Tuesday’s election result in Tennessee drew a mixed bag of reactions from both sides of the political aisle.

• Many Republican lawmakers and pundits, including President Trump, frame the result as a resounding off-year victory in what many framed as a key test of Trump’s popularity in his second term.
• But some have also voiced concern over potential evidence that voters are cooling on Trump's agenda, citing a recent Gallup poll that put his approval rating at 36%, the lowest of his second term.

On the flip side: Democrats highlighted how the GOP’s margin of victory declined significantly this year, and said they feel encouraged by what the results could mean in the 2026 midterms. But they also questioned whether Dems could've come closer to winning the race outright by running a more moderate candidate, instead of one who campaigned alongside progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).

Looking ahead…Analysts say Tuesday’s results indicate the 2026 midterm elections will largely hinge on which party can better motivate their supporters to head to the polls.