Nord Stream sabotage: whodunnit?

NATO released a statement yesterday, saying the recent leaks on the Nord Stream pipelines between Russia and Europe were the result of sabotage. This comes one day after the EU also said it suspected foul play – though neither revealed how they arrived at their conclusions.

🧠 What we know so far… Swedish and Danish authorities yesterday confirmed they found a total of four leaks in the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipelines, which Danish officials attributed to a series of underwater explosions on Monday. The leaks don’t immediately threaten Europe’s gas supply, as both pipelines aren’t currently in use.

🤔 Who’s to blame?... Both NATO and the EU stopped short of publicly naming any suspects, but some of their member nations openly blamed Russia – which, in turn, pointed a finger at the US. Both Moscow and D.C. have issued statements denying any involvement.

• 🇷🇺 Russia: Experts say Moscow stands to gain since they can now legally cut off all gas exports to Europe without technically breaching contract (due to force majeure). Additional reasons include sending a message to the West, and driving up the price of natural gas (of which Russia is a leading exporter).
• 🇺🇸 The US: Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov said American natural gas suppliers were reaping “huge profits” from increased sales to Europe, which suggests the US was behind the sabotage. Russian news outlets also played clips of President Biden vowing in early February that if Moscow invaded Ukraine, “there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2.” In the West, some commentators argue a potential attempt to remove Russia’s energy leverage over Europe this upcoming winter would most benefit American interests.
• 🇺🇦 Ukraine or Baltic states: Ukraine, along with several other countries bordering the Baltic Sea, have long opposed the Nord Stream pipelines and advocated for Russian gas to flow through pipelines in their own respective countries.