Russian drones shot down over NATO territory in historic military escalation

NATO-member warplanes shot down several Russian drones over Poland late Tuesday evening, according to officials from the military alliance. It marks the first time in history that NATO forces have engaged Russian military hardware in airspace over a member nation’s territory.

• The incident, which Polish authorities said involved 19 total drone incursions into its airspace and four downed craft, caused the closure of major airports across Poland for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022.
• “I have no reason to claim we’re on the brink of war, but a line has been crossed, and it’s incomparably more dangerous than before,” Polish PM Donald Tusk told parliament on Wednesday. “This situation brings us the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II.”

Russia responds: In a statement, Russia’s military said it carried out a “mass strike” on military-industrial targets in Western Ukraine on Tuesday night, and insisted “there had been no plans to target facilities on the territory of Poland." Russia’s embassy in Poland later denied claims that the drones shot down by NATO planes were Russian.

The incident follows a familiar pattern

Russian warplanes have long tested NATO’s defense responses by flying near—or even briefly into—the airspace of alliance members, who rotate air-policing duties along NATO borders.

• These encounters, typically involving traditional crewed aircraft, have become more common since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
• But Tuesday night’s drone incursions reached deeper into the military alliance’s territory than any other in recent years.

Why did Russia provoke NATO? The drone incursion was likely meant by Russia as a test of NATO’s response and resolve, four senior European officials told the Wall Street Journal. However, some officials acknowledged that the drones may have entered Poland’s airspace because they veered off-course from neighboring Ukraine due to malfunctions or electronic warfare/jamming.

Looking ahead…Poland yesterday officially invoked Article 4 of NATO's treaty in response to the Russian drone incursion, meaning all alliance members will soon meet to discuss the security concerns involved. No military action is obligated by Article 4, which has only been invoked eight times in NATO’s 76-year history.