💬 Discussion

How the Invasion Could Impact...

Friday, Feb 25, 2022

How the Invasion Could Impact...

📊 The Economy: Outside of the commodities industry, most Western companies don’t have operations in Russia or Ukraine and were fairly unaffected by Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. But some large multinationals, like Chase, Citi and Stellantis, do have operations in either country and are likely to be impacted by further sanctions.

🍞 Food: Russia (#1) and Ukraine (#5) were two of the top five largest exporters of wheat before the pandemic. "A prolonged conflict would create bread shortages [and increase consumer prices] this fall," Alan Holland, CEO of sourcing technology company Keelvar, told CNBC.

⛽️ Oil & Gas: Russia is one of the world’s most influential oil-market players, as well as its largest exporter of natural gas. Natural-gas prices in Europe, which depends on Russia for energy supplies, jumped 41% following the attack.

  • Oil prices briefly topped $100/barrel yesterday for the first time in almost eight years, but pared their gains following assurances from President Biden that the sanctions package is “specifically designed to allow energy payments to continue.”

📉 📈 Markets Update: The Moscow Exchange dropped 33%, the German DAX closed down 4% and US markets had a wild day, starting in a sharp decline before erasing the drop. The ruble also dropped to a record-low against the dollar yesterday, leading Russia’s central bank to say it would intervene.

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Russia, Ukraine and Rising Geopolitical Tensions

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