SCOTUS Will Overturn Roe v. Wade, Per Leaked Draft

“That the conservative court is willing to overturn Roe v. Wade is not in itself a surprise. Politico, which first reported the draft authored by Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., noted that it was written in February, so there is a possibility that the court’s thinking might have shifted and will continue to. But the starkness of the language — “We hold that Roe ... must be overruled” — takes the issue out of the realm of the theoretical. As does Alito’s assertion that this decision would “return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives.”

He is absolutely right about that.

The basic right to abortion, especially in the early stages of pregnancy, which is when the vast majority of abortions occur, has long enjoyed strong public support. Poll numbers have been remarkably stable in the nearly half-century since Roe established the right to abortion as the law of the land. But it has never been a galvanizing issue for those who support keeping abortion available, the way it has for opponents.

Even as states such as Texas have passed laws that would all but ban the procedure, strategists in both parties have been surprised at how little they are hearing about it in their surveys and focus groups — or as GOP pollster Christine Matthews said to me Tuesday, “why the dog hasn’t barked on this.” People in moderate and liberal states tend to shrug off those restrictive new laws as “something that couldn’t happen here”...

Whether Democrats will be able to capitalize on all of this remains to be seen. What they have shown us thus far leaves plenty of reason to doubt.”

“We don’t know, and may never know, who leaked this or why… Perhaps most importantly, we have no idea the extent to which Alito’s draft may be changed through negotiations with other Republican-appointed justices.

That said, we also now know quite a bit.

We know that Alito was assigned to write for the majority in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, the Mississippi case over a 15-week abortion ban. We know that Alito’s role leaves little doubt that there are at least five votes to overturn Roe v. Wade.

And we know that Alito’s draft is unsubtle. There’s been ample speculation in recent months about how, exactly, the Republican-appointed justices might overturn Roe, and the conservative justice appears to have answered that question in an emphatic and unexpectedly aggressive way: Roe, according to Alito, was “egregiously wrong from the start.”

What kind of limitations would states face on restricting abortion rights going forward? According to Alito’s draft, none.

At that point, as much of the country probably realizes, it would be up to states to decide individually whether reproductive rights exist within their boundaries. But it’s important to understand that for some congressional Republicans, that won’t be the end of the process.

Rather, it will be the beginning of a new one. The Washington Post also reported yesterday:

“Leading antiabortion groups and their allies in Congress have been meeting behind the scenes to plan a national strategy that would kick in if the Supreme Court rolls back abortion rights this summer, including a push for a strict nationwide ban on the procedure if Republicans retake power in Washington.”...

Republican-approved justices intend to end abortion rights, and Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill intend to pursue federal abortion restrictions soon after.

The political/legal/health care earthquake is coming. What we’re feeling now is the preliminary rumbling.”