It’s That Time of Year Again…

“The victory of JD Vance in the raucous Ohio GOP senate primary sets the tone for a midterm success that will include a larger number of unique, independent and successful candidates who will win their races due to their own abilities and association with Donald Trump, and not because of their fealty to Washington, Republicans or the support from major corporations. In fact, a growing number of these successful candidates ran against the traditional national powers. When they come to the Capitol they will comprise the first Republican majority wholly independent of the normal elite power structures.

This could be the most exciting aspect of this year’s Big Red Wave -- victorious candidates who are healthy from giving up the junk food of corporate PAC checks and the largess of most of the big money players who usually finance establishment Republican victories and the resulting carefully constructed caution that always follows. Corporate America has bet on the Democratic Party before, but that former Democratic Party was never this extreme nor opposed to basic pro-business policies…

But the all too obvious story here is the impact of Trump on primaries and the eventual success of his strategy in the midterms. However, what is less understood or discussed is how quickly the GOP, which never changes, has.

This could be the most enduring legacy of the Trump years. It is not so much that he drained the swamp, he just exposed it. It could also be argued that Trump finished the job of breaking down Washington that Reagan started 50 years ago.”

“There’s no good news in Tuesday’s results for Democrats. Four years ago, with heated contests in both parties over nominations for an open governor’s seat, 827,039 Ohioans voted in the Republican primary and 679,738 in the Democratic race. As this piece goes to press the unofficial results from this year’s race show GOP turnout approaching 1.1 million while Democratic turnout is just over 500,000. Ohio ain’t the purple, swingy battleground it once was.

In coming days, there’s likely to be a celebratory picture of Mr. Vance arriving at Mar-a-Lago to thank the former president. There will be smiles and expressions of gratitude by the new Senate nominee. Mr. Trump likely will relish the moment—his man won the contest, yet another candidate is indebted to him, and his pugnacious form of politics triumphed.

But back in Ohio, a majority of Republicans just saw their favorite lose, and among these there will be many who thought of themselves as loyal Trumpistas who now blame the defeat of their favorite on Mr. Trump’s intervention in the primary. Mr. Trump will appear to them as a divisive figure who’s leading only an element of the GOP, not the party writ large. Unhappy supporters will wonder why he intervened in the process, especially so late in the race.

Having endorsed in so many hard-fought primaries, the former president clearly believes it strengthens his hold on the GOP to pick a favorite candidate. But even when his chosen candidate wins, it may diminish his standing among some Trump supporters who backed another hopeful. The problem grows bigger when, inevitably, some of Mr. Trump’s anointed candidates lose. Each defeat shows the limits of Mr. Trump’s influence and they may matter more in the long-run.”