Today is Victory Day...

“Vladimir Putin is an ultra-nationalist who does not believe Russia's territorial and political ambitions should end at its internationally recogniz​ed boundaries. The countries that used to make up the Soviet Union other than Russia are not considered sovereign by Russia -- by most Russians in fact, and especially by Putin.

But with no friendly tools to attract other countries available, to retain or regain an empire Russia needs a powerful army. May 9 is designed to show off to the home crowd, to intimidate the opposition and to please the dictator of the time…

Ukrainians are still receiving weaponry and morale is high -- although Kyiv controls the information surrounding the war and we do not know the real state of their armed forces. Its greatest challenge (from the east) is yet to come however, and the next few weeks will see intensified fighting as Russia tries to capture more land in Donbas.

The question remains, however, whether Moscow will seek to continue the offensive beyond its minor territorial gains or choose to "freeze" positions on the ground -- dig into Ukrainian territory and sue Ukraine for peace as the war enters a new, more static, phase…

Both sides are effectively maneuvering for a better position at the negotiating table when that time eventually comes. In military terms, the war might be reaching a stalemate in the coming weeks, where neither side has sufficient force to completely change the tide of war and achieve a decisive victory over the other.”

“The New York Times’ revelation that the United States is actively helping Ukraine kill Russian generals led to what is by now a familiar pattern: A White House official leaks explosive information revealing far greater U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine than previously acknowledged. The next day, another U.S. official walks back the statement… Imperceptibly, America’s aims and goals in Ukraine expand — with potentially disastrous consequences.

When Russia first embarked on its illegal invasion of Ukraine, America’s response was prudent and limited… To Biden’s credit, his administration resisted early and potentially devastating calls for escalatory measures such as imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

But as it became increasingly clear that Russia’s military was failing on the battlefield and accounts of Russian atrocities against Ukrainian civilians multiplied, it seems either the administration’s message control began to disintegrate or the goal started to change. (Or both.) The stated objectives simultaneously became more expansive and less precise…

By using this reveal-retract strategy, the White House creates confusion which blunts criticism against its more ambitious goals. Objectives that a few weeks ago would have been flat-out rejected are now slowly accepted… It’s a slippery slope, with a direct confrontation with nuclear-armed Russia at the bottom.

Shifting toward “weakening Russia” rather than “defending Ukraine” is particularly problematic. Unlike other leaks or announcements, the White House has done little to walk this one back…

A side effect of defending Ukraine would certainly be the weakening of Russia. But originally, it was understood that America’s military support would come to an end once Ukraine no longer needs defending. By flipping the priorities and centering the objective around bleeding Russia, the conflict could conceivably continue even after Ukraine’s defensive needs have been met and Russia’s invasion has been defeated.”