💬 Discussion

November is coming into focus

Friday, Jun 17, 2022

Image: Indiana Daily Student

Midterm primary elections were held across four states this week, along with a separate special runoff election for an open House seat in South Texas.

🏛️ Special election: In Texas, Republican Mayra Flores prevailed over Democrat Dan Sanchez by a roughly 8-point margin, flipping a seat formerly held by Dems; she’ll be the first-ever Mexican-born Congresswoman. The election was unique for this cycle in that it was held under last decade’s redistricting lines, in a district which President Biden had won by 4 points.

🗳️ Midterm primaries: In South Carolina, incumbent Rep. Tom Rice – who voted to impeach former President Trump – lost to Trump-endorsed GOP challenger Russell Fry, while incumbent Rep. Nancy Mace won her primary against a Trump-backed candidate.

  • Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) will take on incumbent Gov. Janet Mills (D) after the two advanced past Tuesday primaries that were all-but-formalities.

Image: FiveThirtyEight

☝️ Big picture: Republicans currently hold a 2.5-point advantage over Democrats in FiveThirtyEight’s aggregation of generic congressional polls.

  • President Biden’s approval rating is now below 40% for the first time in his presidency, per FiveThirtyEight, while RealClearPolitics also has it pegged at 39.9%
  • Presidential approval ratings are usually a good indicator of what'll happen in the midterms.

See the 360° View →

Democratic donkey symbol

Sprinkles from the Left

  • 37% of Democratic voters strongly approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as President, while 40% somewhat approve, 12% somewhat disapprove, and 7% strongly disapprove.

Source → (Morning Consult)

“Elections are decided by the issues on voters’ minds, not the issues many of us might wish were on voters’ minds.

This lesson was brought home forcefully by the juxtaposition of the Federal Reserve’s big rate hike on Wednesday with the victory of Trumpist “big lie” candidates in primaries the day before — and the work of the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection…

If Republicans up and down the ballot win this fall because so many voters choose to punish Biden and the Democrats for high prices, the GOP sweep would carry into office outright election deniers as well as politicians too timid or too opportunistic to challenge them. As Amy Gardner and Isaac Arnsdorf reported in The Post, more than 100 GOP primary winners backed Trump’s false claims of election fraud…

A revolt against Democrats at the top of the ballot could put management of the 2024 elections in the hands of the same sorts of people the Jan. 6 committee is exposing as dangerous frauds.

The potential for an economy-led GOP landslide is high… ​​This points up the need for Democrats, especially Biden, to try to cut their losses on inflation by arguing their proposals to reduce costs are more credible than anything Republicans are offering. It won’t be an easy sell, but Biden took a decent shot at this with a rousing speech to the AFL-CIO on Tuesday.

But there is no substitute for trying — however hard it will be — to make the preservation of democracy a much higher priority for voters. Their ballots won’t cut prices at the pump or what they pay for groceries. But they will determine the future of our experiment in self-government.”

–E.J. Dionne Jr., WaPo

“Here's an apparently unpopular opinion: Joe Biden is not failing or flailing. His presidency is not in peril…

Everyone needs to take a breath: It's been one year. These headlines could just as easily read, "Joe Biden Fails to Fix Every Problem in the World in 365 days."

What drives much of the "presidency in peril" coverage is Biden's approval ratings…

Low approval ratings are used as a proxy by various political and ideological factions to argue that the president needs to do more of what they want and if he doesn't, he won't get reelected. (Spoiler alert: nobody will cast their vote in three years based on how they feel today about Biden). Progressives argue ratings are low because Biden is not progressive enough and moderates and "Never Trump" Republicans argue it's because Biden is too liberal. It's become conventional wisdom in the media that Biden's approval ratings started dropping because of how he handled the Afghanistan withdrawal. But Gallup's senior editor Jeff Jones told Politico in November that his declining poll numbers began before that, during the Delta Covid-19 variant surge.

Low approval ratings are used as a proxy by various political and ideological factions to argue that the president needs to do more of what they want and if he doesn't, he won't get reelected. (Spoiler alert: nobody will cast their vote in three years based on how they feel today about Biden). Progressives argue ratings are low because Biden is not progressive enough and moderates and "Never Trump" Republicans argue it's because Biden is too liberal…

Ultimately, we need to remember that Biden entered the White House during one of the most difficult periods this country has ever faced..

It seems that whatever Biden's flaws, the country is in a better place than it was when he took office, something that was not a given considering the challenges he was up against. Like all presidents, he is clearly absorbing the lessons of the first year and recalibrating for the next.”

–Kirsten Powers, CNN
Republican elephant symbol

Sprinkles from the Right

  • 2% of Republican voters strongly approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as President, while 4% somewhat approve, 13% somewhat disapprove, and 80% strongly disapprove.

Source → (Morning Consult)

“After winning Tuesday’s special election in Texas, Mayra Flores will soon become America’s first Mexican-born Congresswoman—and by the way, she’s a Republican who’s married to a Border Patrol agent. What a great American story, plus another piece of evidence that Democrats won’t win the future on demographics alone…

Ms. Flores will serve out the rest of his term, and it doesn’t sound like she won by triangulating to the center. “Washington liberals are killing the American dream, attacking oil-and-gas jobs and causing prices to skyrocket,” she says in her ads. “We must secure our borders and keep our families safe.” She describes herself as pro-life and promises to defend religious liberty. As of the latest results, she won outright with 51% of the vote in a four-way race.

Today’s Democratic Party is increasingly out of step with many Hispanic voters. Progressives want no restrictions on abortion. They see oil-and-gas jobs as a threat to the climate. And they characterize religious-liberty arguments as bigotry in disguise. The more that President Biden defers to the left-most elements of his party, the better the opportunity for Republicans to make substantive gains.

Perhaps Ms. Flores’s victory will cause a few more Democratic South Texans to reconsider the GOP. A note of caution is that special elections aren’t always harbingers. The current tally says about 30,000 voters turned out Tuesday, compared with more than 200,000 in 2020. Ms. Flores will have her work cut out for her to keep her seat in November. That election will take place under a revised map that makes the district more Democratic.

Ms. Flores will face incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, who currently holds the neighboring 15th district. She will need to work hard these next five months to prove herself. But whatever happens, her win Tuesday already proves that GOP can compete for her constituents.”

–WSJ Editorial Board

“To the extent that Democrats are still banking on Latino voters to carry them to durable national majorities, the result in Tuesday’s special election in the Texas 34th congressional district should be an alarm bell… Voters in the South Texas district opted for the Republican candidate by more than seven and a half points…

Regardless of Flores’s fate this November, her Tuesday night victory portends a major shift in the American political landscape. A whopping 85 percent of the residents in TX-34 are Hispanic, according to 2020 census data. Just 13 percent are white. The district, like much of South Texas, has long been a Democratic stronghold: Biden carried Cameron County, the most populous county in the district, by 13 points in 2020. On Tuesday, Flores won Cameron by about one point.

For months, poll after poll has presaged a rapid rightward shift among Hispanics. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in the border communities of South Texas, which have pivoted toward the GOP in overwhelming numbers over the course of the last few years. Five of the six biggest county-level shifts to Trump from 2016 to 2020 were in South Texas. In Texas’s 99 percent Hispanic Starr County, for example, Trump marked a 55-point improvement.

All this represents a serious challenge to a long-standing tenet of elite conventional wisdom — namely, that the growing Hispanic share of the American electorate would invariably push the country leftward.”

–National Review Editorial Board
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