The Taiwan question

America’s decades-long standoff with China over Taiwan is heating up. On Friday, the White House announced plans to provide Taiwan with $345 million worth of military training and equipment from the Pentagon’s stockpiles, as part of a congressionally approved measure aimed at deterring China from invading Taiwan.

⏪ Some quick background: Taiwan split from China in 1949 following a civil war in which the defeated ruling Chinese government fled to the island and declared independence. Ever since then, China’s leaders – including current President Xi Jinping – have maintained their right to retake control of Taiwan by force if necessary.

• Under its one-China policy enacted in 1979, the US government officially “acknowledges” China’s position that Taiwan belongs to them, but also opposes any efforts to disrupt the status quo in which Taiwan is self-governed.

📅 That brings us to present day: The US currently has a “robust unofficial relationship” with Taiwan, according to the State Department. This includes a trade deal through which Taiwan, the world’s semiconductor superpower, supplies 90% of all chips used by US tech companies, and America supplies a majority of Taiwan’s military imports.

But China has consistently opposed any official US-Taiwan relations whatsoever, often using military exercises to voice their displeasure. On two separate occasions in the past year, Beijing has launched a simulated invasion of Taiwan as a direct response to high-level meetings between US and Taiwanese lawmakers.

🤔 What happens if China invades Taiwan for real?... Short answer: it’s unclear. President Biden last year said the US would deploy troops to defend Taiwan if China invaded the island – but the State Department later walked back that commitment, saying US policy towards Taiwan remains unchanged.

• The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act allows the US to provide “defense articles and defense services” to help Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities, but it doesn’t guarantee US military intervention in the event of an invasion.

📊 Flash poll: If Taiwan is invaded by China, how do you think the US should react?

Deploy US troops to fight against China

Provide military/financial support, but don’t deploy troops (similar to Ukraine)

Stay out of the conflict entirely

Unsure/other