New polls suggest a generational shift in the Biden v. Trump race

The upcoming presidential election could see a historic realignment of the political affiliations associated with each age bracket in America, with President Biden increasingly attracting older voters and former President Trump doing the same for younger folks, according to a pair of recent polls.

• Last week, a national survey from NPR/Marist College/PBS Newshour showed Trump leading Biden by a 2% margin among millennial and Gen Z voters (ages 18-43), while Biden was ahead among Gen X, baby boomers, and the Silent Generation (ages 44+).
• A Fox News poll last month found Trump ahead of Biden by an 18-point margin among voters under 30 in a head-to-head matchup, with Trump’s lead extending to 21 points in that age group when third-party candidates were included.

Both polls represent a significant change from past elections. If the latest figures hold true in November, it would reverse a decades-long trend in which Democratic presidential candidates have overwhelmingly won young voters, and Republicans have done the same with the other end of the electorate.

• In their first matchup four years ago, Biden beat Trump by an estimated 20+-point margin among US voters under the age of 30.

Yes, but… Some polling experts say the surprising survey data in recent months could be a sign that polls are once again struggling to measure the presidential race accurately, after being off in the previous two presidential elections.

📸 Big picture: Biden and Trump are essentially deadlocked for the popular vote on a national level – though recent polling suggests Trump is currently leading or tied in six of the seven key swing states experts say will likely decide the White House race.

📊 Flash poll: If November’s presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?

• The Republican candidate
• The Democratic candidate
• A third-party candidate
• I’m too young/I don’t vote
• Unsure/other