New FBI data shows a steep decline in violent crimes
Image: John Taggart
Violent crime in the US fell significantly in the first quarter of 2024 compared to last year, according to the FBI's Quarterly Uniform Crime Report published yesterday. (See? All news isn’t bad.)
The data, collected from participating police departments across the country, shows overall violent crime decreased by 15% nationally in January-March compared to the same months in 2023.
- Crime rates declined across each individual category, including murders (-26%), rape offenses (-26%), robberies (-18%), aggravated assaults (-13%), and reported property crimes (-15%).
The FBI’s report carries a few caveats: It only covers 72% of the ~19,000+ total law enforcement agencies in America, as many local departments regularly fail to meet the FBI’s reporting deadline. The data also depends on the accuracy of each agency’s individual report, which typically varies from precinct to precinct.
But, despite its potential inaccuracies, the FBI’s data tracks with other reports that show a smaller, but still significant annual drop in violent crime so far this year.
- Jeff Asher, co-founder of criminal justice data firm AH Datalytics, said the FBI’s data is “almost certainly overstated by a good bit,” but the general trend showing a large decrease in violent crime is still accurate.
- The Major Cities Chiefs Association, which regularly surveys 70 major metropolitan police departments, found a 17% annual drop in murders over the first quarter of 2024, with similar declines for rapes and aggravated assaults.
Big picture: Following a notable increase during the first year of the Covid pandemic, US violent crime rates have fallen in each of the past three years. Overall, violent crime rates today are ~50% lower compared to America’s recorded peak in the early 1990s.
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Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that public perceptions about violent crime don’t necessarily bear much relationship to reality, as many people mistakenly believe America is more crime-ridden than ever largely due to partisan manipulation by leading Republican figures.
- Others contend that despite perceptions that crime is “soaring,” the end of the pandemic has seen violent crime plunge, likely due to additional money for police departments supplied through the Biden-era American Rescue Plan Act.
- “This Is Your Brain on Crime” –Paul Krugman, NY Times
- “Crime is down. No, really.” –Jennifer Rubin, WaPo
- “America’s Peace Wave” –David A. Graham, The Atlantic
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that there’s more to FBI crime data than headlines would have you believe, and the story from many outlets about how violent crime is no longer an issue following Covid obscures how Democrats’ bad policy has worsened violence.
- Others contend that there is good reason to question statistics claiming that lawlessness is on the decline, since police just aren’t responding to calls or counting incidents as they once did due to new Democrat-backed policies.
- “Covid Becomes an Excuse for Crime” –Joshua Crawford, WSJ
- “Biden’s crime problem” –Washington Times Editorial Board
- “Bad data from the FBI mislead about crime” –Mark Morgan and Sean Kennedy, Washington Examiner
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