💬 Discussion

Illegal US border crossings have declined significantly this year

Friday, Aug 2

KP

Kyle Nowak|Peter Nowak

Image: Taylor Johnston/CBS News

The recent surge in unauthorized migration at America’s southern border appears to have dissipated. In July, Border Patrol arrests along the US-Mexico border fell for the fifth straight month to reach their lowest level since September 2020, according to preliminary federal data.

By the numbers: The number of migrants arrested for illegally entering the US from Mexico fell to ~56,000 last month, marking a 30% decrease from June. It also represents a sharp decline from a recent peak of 250,000 arrests in December 2023, the highest monthly total on record.

  • Migration has dropped so markedly that average daily illegal border crossings are approaching 1,500/day – or the threshold at which federal officials would be required to lift an ongoing ban on asylum claims enacted by President Biden in early June.

Driving the trend… Analysts and border officials point to three main factors:

  1. Mexico’s government has overseen a large-scale crackdown on migrants headed to the US in recent months, stopping many from reaching America in the first place.
  2. Historically hot summer temperatures have made the migration journey even more difficult, discouraging people from attempting to enter the US.
  3. America’s ongoing ban on asylum claims – under which migrants caught illegally entering the US can be quickly deported or turned back to Mexico – has coincided with a ~50% reduction in arrests at the southern border (since June 5).

Looking ahead… America’s asylum restrictions will likely continue through next year and beyond, regardless of who wins November’s presidential election. VP Kamala Harris's campaign has signaled she would continue the Biden admin’s current asylum ban, while former President Trump has promised to enact more restrictive border policies.

📊 Flash poll: Do you personally consider unauthorized immigration to be: a crisis, fairly significant problem, minor problem, or not a problem for the US?

See a 360° view of what media pundits are saying →

Democratic donkey symbol

Sprinkles from the Left

  • Some commentators argue that Democrats shouldn’t count on their current policies continuing to bring down unauthorized migration in the future, as the contested Venezuelan election could set off a renewed cascade of migrants across the Western Hemisphere.
  • Others contend that Democrats’ tolerance for illegal immigration violates other core values they hold dear – from workers' rights to affordable housing – and is also a political albatross that threatens the party's chances in November.
Republican elephant symbol

Sprinkles from the Right

  • Some commentators argue that the Biden administration’s open borders policy is not only endangering Americans, but has helped raise housing prices too due to a vast influx of new people across the country.
  • Others contend that Republicans should advance bipartisan legislation to secure the border and open more legal pathways for people to come here, and Democrats should become stronger advocates for border management.
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