How RFK Jr.’s departure will affect the 2024 presidential race
Image: Evan Vucci/AP
On Friday, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. officially suspended his 2024 campaign and endorsed former President Trump, potentially boosting the Republican candidate hours after Democrats concluded their convention.
More details: Kennedy, who appeared alongside Trump at a rally in Arizona hours after suspending his campaign, said he’ll remove his name from the ballot "in about 10 battleground states where my presence would be a spoiler," while remaining on ~30 other state ballots.
- In explaining his decision, Kennedy said the principles that persuaded him to leave the Democratic Party and run as an independent last year – including the protection of free speech, ending the war in Ukraine, and addressing chronic illness in children – have now led him to support Trump in the 2024 race.
Between the lines: Kennedy has seen his support among American voters drop by roughly half since President Biden exited the race. RFK Jr. consistently polled around 10% between March 1 and mid-July of this year – but starting on July 21, when Biden dropped out and endorsed VP Harris, Kennedy’s support has gradually fallen to its current level of 4.7%, per FiveThirtyEight.
Looking ahead… Analysts say Kennedy’s exit from the presidential race will likely boost support for Trump compared to Vice President Kamala Harris, but the size of that boost is still uncertain.
- A Cook Political Report survey of seven battleground states published earlier this month found Trump was the second choice of 45% of Kennedy voters in these states, compared with 26% for Harris. Overall, Kennedy was supported by ~5% of likely voters across these states, down from 8% in May.
- According to FiveThirtyEight's G. Elliott Morris, Harris led Trump in the company’s model by 3.3% last week in a hypothetical race featuring Kennedy. When Kennedy was removed, Harris’ lead dipped slightly to 3.1% – though the model didn’t account for RFK Jr.’s endorsement of Trump.
Big picture: Overall, Harris is currently leading Trump by a slight margin in polling aggregators from RealClearPolitics (+1.5%), FiveThirtyEight (+3.6%), and The Hill/Decision Desk HQ (+3.6%). But Trump is currently projected to defeat Harris by a 287-251 margin in the Electoral College based on individual state polls, per RCP.
📊 Flash poll: In your opinion, will RFK Jr.’s decision to drop out of the race and endorse Trump have a material impact on the result of the 2024 presidential election?
See a 360° view of what media pundits are saying
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that, given how low Kennedy has been polling in the wake of Harris’ elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket, his endorsement probably won’t make much of a difference in the presidential race.
- Others contend that RFK Jr. has almost certainly thrown his support behind Trump in exchange for a potential cabinet position, which represents a hollow grab for power, a strategic attempt at relevance.
- “By endorsing Trump, RFK Jr. betrays the Kennedy legacy” –Karen Tumulty, WaPo
- “Ignore my brother Bobby, Max Kennedy says” –Max Kennedy, LA Times
- “RFK Jr.’s worm here: I guess I’m supporting Trump, too” –Alexandra Petri, WaPo
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that RFK Jr.’s endorsement of Trump represents a double-edged sword, in that it may help the former President in battleground states, but the price could be high if it includes putting Kennedy in a second Trump Administration.
- Others contend that RFK Jr. endorsing Trump will result in Trump gaining more of his supporters than Harris does – which may be a small number, but still enough to make a huge difference in November.
- “RFK Jr.’s Double-Edged Trump Endorsement” –WSJ Editorial Board
- “Don’t Dismiss the RFK Jr. Endorsement Wildcard” –Philip Klein, National Review
- “Lesson of RFK is how Democrats drive away their own voters” –Jonathan Turley, NY Post
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