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The 2024 election is officially underway

Friday, Sep 6

Images: Indiana Daily Student

We’re just under two months away from the 2024 election – but for some voters, Election Day is already here.

North Carolina, the first state scheduled to start mailing out absentee ballots to voters, will begin doing so later today, kicking off the nationwide rollout of mail-in ballots.

  • A handful of states will follow North Carolina’s lead over the next few weeks, while ballots for overseas and military voters will be sent out by September 21.
  • Outside of mail-in ballots, five states are set to begin in-person early voting later this month: Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Virginia, Vermont, and Illinois.

These initial votes come as both presidential candidates tout new policy proposals. In an economic speech on Wednesday, VP Kamala Harris proposed increasing the top long-term capital gains tax rate to 28% – up from 23.8% currently, but lower than President Biden’s suggestion of 39.6%. Harris also said she wants to quadruple the tax on stock buybacks to 4%, and expand the small business tax credit tenfold to $50,000.

  • The following day, former President Trump unveiled a new batch of economic policy proposals, including plans to lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%. He also proposed the creation of a government efficiency commission aimed at eliminating wasteful federal spending, which would potentially be led by Elon Musk.

Polling update: Harris is currently leading Trump by a slight margin in polling aggregators from RealClearPolitics (+1.8%), FiveThirtyEight (+3.2%), and The Hill/Decision Desk HQ (+4.1%). Harris is also currently projected to defeat Trump by a 273-265 margin in the Electoral College based on individual state polls, per RCP.

  • Professor Allan Lichtman, a historian who has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 US presidential elections, said yesterday that he believes Harris will win in November.

As for Congress: All 435 House seats and 33/100 Senate seats are up for election this year. According to 270toWin, Republicans are projected to win 209 House seats compared to 205 for Democrats, with the remaining 21 seats rated as toss-ups. In the Senate, Republicans are projected to hold 50 seats after the election compared to 48 for Democrats, with the final two seats being toss-ups.

Looking ahead… The first presidential debate between Trump and Harris is scheduled for next Tuesday at 9 pm ET on ABC News.

📊 Flash poll: If you were going to vote in the 2024 presidential election today, which candidate would you choose?

See a 360° view of what media pundits are saying →

Democratic donkey symbol

Sprinkles from the Left

  • Some commentators argue that Trump and Harris appear distinct in character, style, tone, outlook, and dignity – but they need to do a better job of separating themselves when it comes to the specifics of their policy proposals.
  • Others contend that Harris is better able than Trump to tackle the major issues ahead: income inequality and wealth disparities, rising healthcare and other costs, assaults on abortion rights and personal freedoms, global instability, and climate threats.
Republican elephant symbol

Sprinkles from the Right

  • Some commentators argue that Harris’ latest plan to raise the capital gains tax is a bad idea since it discourages investment, and illustrates how far left she and the Democratic party have strayed from their past versions.
  • Others contend that if Trump succeeds against Harris, it will be because Americans decided they like the red model of governance more than the blue model, and valued social and moral cohesion above other issues.
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