How will the war in Ukraine end?
Image: The Times
This week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky unveiled the details of his “victory plan,” which is aimed at bringing an end to his country’s yearslong war against Russia.
The plan, which Zelensky presented to the EU on Wednesday evening, largely focuses on measures to strengthen Ukraine’s position, so that it can end the war by no later than next year.
It contains five key proposals:
- Invite Ukraine to join the NATO military alliance.
- Strengthen Ukrainian defense against Russian forces, including getting permission from allies to use their long-range weapons on Russian territory.
- Deploy a “non-nuclear strategic deterrence package” on Ukrainian soil to protect against military threats from Russia.
- Enlist the US and EU to protect Ukraine's critical natural resources from Russia, in exchange for agreements allowing the nations to use them.
- Replace some US troops stationed across Europe with Ukrainian soldiers (only once the Russia-Ukraine war ends).
But… US officials are reportedly unimpressed with Zelensky’s new “victory plan,” expressing concerns that it lacks a comprehensive strategy and is little more than a repackaged request for more weapons and permission to launch long-range missiles. Some Ukrainian lawmakers have also openly critiqued the plan as being unrealistic and lacking concrete steps.
A war update: In early August 2024, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise incursion into the Kursk region of Russia, prompting the Kremlin to deploy ~40,000 troops in response. Since then, Russia has reportedly succeeded in removing some Ukrainian forces from its territory, though fighting remains ongoing.
Big picture: Overall, the Russia-Ukraine war has resulted in 1+ million casualties since February 2022, per Wall Street Journal sources (though determining the exact number of dead and wounded is near impossible).
- The WSJ estimates ~80,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed and ~400,000 more have been injured, while up to ~200,000 Russian troops have been killed and ~400,000 others injured.
📊 Flash poll: Which of the following best describes your thoughts regarding Ukrainian President Zelensky’s “victory plan?”
See a 360° view of what media pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some analysts contend that fatigue and skepticism are beginning to settle in Ukraine’s Western allies as the war drags on, and that may spell trouble for the plan’s chances of being enacted satisfactorily.
- Others argue that a guarantee of acceptance for Ukraine’s invitation to NATO - particularly from Joe Biden before he leaves the White House - is critical in dissuading Russia from pushing its offensive any further.
- “As U.S. election nears, gloom settles over Ukraine.” –Ishaan Tharoor, Washington Post
- “Ukraine needs a NATO guarantee.” –Le Monde Editorial, Le Monde
- “Volodymyr Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’ is in danger.” –Mary Dejevsky, Gulf Today
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that Zelenksy’s plan will be unsuccessful in restoring peace for Ukraine, since it ignores the reality of Russia’s gradual advancement on the battlefield and the significant reduction of Ukraine’s GDP since the start of the war.
- Others contend that Zelensky's plan is delusional and too reliant on US and NATO support to succeed, and the reality of Ukraine losing the war can no longer be ignored.
- “5 reasons why Zelenskyy’s victory plan for Ukraine is a no-win gamble.” –Rebekah Koffler, Fox News
- “Ukraine's 'Victory Plan' Is Delusional.” –Tyler Durden, TIPP Insights
- “Zelensky's 'Victory Plan' Is Old Wine in a New Bottle.” –Danial R. DePetris, Newsweek
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