Republicans are officially the majority in Washington – what’s next?
Image: NBC News/Getty
The final race of the 2024 US elections was called this week, with Democrats flipping a House seat to narrow their majority in the chamber.
The results mean the GOP will control the House (220-215), Senate (53-47), and White House for at least two years, starting next month.
But there are some roadblocks to enacting their agenda. Democrats are gearing up to challenge many future GOP policies via the Senate filibuster, a procedure used by lawmakers to prevent legislation from being debated or brought to a vote without support from 60 senators, instead of a simple majority. This means anything brought to a vote in the Senate will need to have at least some bipartisan support (seven Democrats siding with all 53 Republicans, for example).
- Additionally, Republicans will have to deal with the smallest House advantage for either party since 1931 – an edge that will be even smaller, just 217-215, until the three House Republicans nominated for roles in Trump’s Cabinet are replaced in special elections (assuming they get confirmed).
Skrrt, skrrt? Republicans plan to use a process called budget reconciliation to address key issues like immigration, energy, and tax cuts. This process would allow the GOP to get around the 60-vote filibuster Democrats will likely use to force bipartisanship on most major legislation.
However, budget reconciliation is limited to legislation strictly related to the budget, like certain bills addressing government spending, tax revenues, and the debt limit.
- The GOP will also try to execute its agenda via presidential executive orders, though they also carry limitations and can be overturned by future presidential administrations.
Looking ahead…Incoming Senate Republican leader John Thune recently outlined a roadmap of top GOP priorities for President-elect Trump’s first 30 days in office. According to Thune, Republicans intend to move forward with a reconciliation bill that addresses policies related to energy, border security, defense, and tax cuts in line with those of Trump’s first term.
📊 Flash poll: In your opinion, how much of their legislative agenda will Republicans be able to enact over the next two years?
See a 360° view of what pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some analysts argue that Republicans have historically been bailed out by Democrats when it comes to votes on major obligations of the government and that their small majority will force them to turn to Democrats time and again for stability.
- Others contend that Republican gerrymandering policies in North Carolina are what allowed them to squeeze out a slim majority in the House of Representatives, and that independent districting commissions are needed in the future to ensure this does not happen again.
- “House Republicans may be humbled by their small majority soon.” –Brendan Buck, MSNBC
- “NC congressman: Republicans stole fairness from the nation in giving GOP a House majority.” –Wiley Nickel, Charlotte Observer
- “Will ‘Constitutional Republicans’ Save the Senate?” –Jonathan Alter, New York Times
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that Republicans can’t afford factionalism due to their slim majority and that they will have to come together to get as much done in the next year as possible before risking losing their majority come the 2026 midterms.
- Others contend that California taking until December 4, 2024, to finish counting their votes undermines faith in the legitimacy of their electoral process.
- “The GOP Barely Won the House.” –Wall Street Journal Editorial Board
- “Cali counted votes until Republican lost — do Dems just not care how bad this looks?” –New York Post Editorial Board
- “The lessons of an election.” –Deseret News Editorial Board
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