The Russia-Ukraine war, three years later
Image: ISW/BBC
Monday marked exactly three years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, kicking off an ongoing war with major global implications.
An update: Current estimates show Ukraine has lost ~11% of its territory to the Russian invasion since 2022. While isolated instances of fighting are scattered across Ukraine, fighting is currently most concentrated in the Donetsk region, where Russian forces are currently advancing.
- 46,000+ Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and 390,000+ wounded over the past three years, Ukrainian president Zelensky recently said. Other independent estimates of the country's total casualties are considerably higher.
- On the Russian side, Moscow hasn’t released casualty numbers for its troops since 2022. Independent estimates vary widely, but most put Russia's losses higher than Ukraine's, with troop deaths estimated between 95,000-165,000.
America’s role may be changing
The US has provided $65.9 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since the start of the war. But America’s current role has come into question following a series of recent Trump administration statements and actions, including criticism of Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as opening US-Russia peace talks in Saudi Arabia without Ukraine present.
- This week, the US was one of 18 countries – alongside Russia, North Korea, and Belarus – to vote against a UN resolution meant to condemn Moscow's invasion and reiterate support for Ukraine on the war’s three-year anniversary.
The US is also limiting free aid to Ukraine. The recent tensions between the two countries come amid weeks of ongoing negotiations over a deal for the US to access billions of dollars worth of mineral rights in Ukraine in exchange for further American military assistance.
Yesterday, President Trump announced Ukraine agreed to a mineral rights deal that’ll be finalized in a White House signing ceremony with Zelensky on Friday – though exact details weren’t immediately made public.
Looking ahead…The US and Russia have both committed to more high-level peace talks in the coming weeks and months. Ukrainian officials say Kyiv currently won’t accept any territorial concessions, or a “bad peace deal” with Russia.
📊 Flash poll: In general, how do you feel about the way America’s role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has changed since President Trump took office?
See a 360° view of what pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that Trump’s statements on the war have ushered in a new world order that will further isolate America from its European allies, empowering Russia to advance its geopolitical influence in the West.
- Others contend that, on the third eve of the conflict, Ukraine’s survival as a sovereign nation is the most at stake and that Europe must accept the reality that America may not support them in defending it.
- “Three Years Into War in Ukraine, Trump Ushers in New World for Putin.” –Paul Sonne, New York Times
- “Ukraine: War and rupture three years after the Russian invasion.”–Le Monde Editorial Board
- “Abandoning Ukraine would damage U.S. credibility.” –Washington Post Editorial Board
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that the United States’s vote against the UN resolution condemning Russia for invading Ukraine three years ago spells a sad day in American and UN history and makes it difficult to be optimistic about the president’s capacity to resolve the conflict properly.
- Others contend that Trump is pushing for a deal that, while unpopular now, will be lauded in the future as it encourages both parties to ease tensions and ultimately keeps the US neutral in a foreign war.
- “A Sad Day for the U.S. at the U.N.”–Wall Street Journal Editorial Board
- “Trump’s Ukraine tightrope, how to fix the FBI and other commentary.” –New York Post Editorial Board
- “Editorial: Three years after Russian invasion, Trump moves to betray, plunder Ukraine.” –Virginian-Pilot and Daily Press Editorial Board
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