💬 Discussion

Illegal border crossings reach their lowest level in decades

Monday, Mar 10

Image: Taylor Johnston/CBS News/US CBP

The number of migrants illegally crossing the US-Mexico border plummeted in President Trump’s first full month in office, per multiple reports citing preliminary government data.

By the numbers: Border Patrol apprehended around 8,300-8,450 migrants who crossed the southern border unlawfully in February, per data obtained by Axios and CBS News along with a post from Trump.

  • That’s down from ~29,100 apprehensions the previous month, and ~140,600 in February 2024.
  • It also marks the lowest number of unauthorized crossings since at least October 1999, the earliest month with publicly accessible data.

The decline has two main factors

Analysts say the data can be attributed to both Trump's sweeping changes in immigration policy and rhetoric, along with trends that began months before his second term.

After spiking at the end of 2023, illegal border crossings fell in 2024 following new Biden admin restrictions and Mexico ramping up enforcement. Trump has escalated some of these restrictions, with recent moves including empowering US officials to deport migrants without hearing asylum claims, and deploying active-duty troops to the US-Mexico border.

Will the data affect US tariffs? Short answer: it’s currently unclear. Stopping illegal immigration is one of the main rationales behind Trump’s tariffs on US border nations Canada and Mexico. But while both countries received a temporary tariff reprieve after enhancing border security last month, analysts are uncertain whether this new US-Mexico border data will influence negotiations.

Zoom out: The Trump admin’s southern border strategy has yielded quick results, but its efforts within America are still ramping up. Trump has pledged to deport all ~14 million immigrants living in the country illegally during his second term, and signed several executive orders to that effect.

  • Over Trump’s first three weeks in office, ICE has arrested ~14,000 unauthorized migrants in the US (pacing at ~250,000/year) – twice last year’s average, but still shy of Trump’s goal (~3.5 million/year).

📊 Flash poll: Do you personally consider unauthorized immigration to be: a crisis, fairly significant problem, minor problem, or not a problem for the US?

See a 360° view of what pundits are saying →

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Sprinkles from the Left

  • Some commentators argue that Trump’s immigration moves signal that America has transitioned from its roots as a nation of immigrants who accepts “your tired, your poor” to instead only welcoming rich migrants and shunning everyone else.
  • Others contend that Democrats lost their way on immigration from the mid-2010s to present, as part of a broader shift to the left to follow the wishes of very progressive, largely affluent members – but there’s no evidence their near-open-borders policies are what Americans want.
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Sprinkles from the Right

  • Some commentators argue that the Trump deterrent effect on new migrants entering the country is profound – despite the fact Trump has mostly maintained Biden’s latest border policies, people know immigration enforcement is dialed up considerably, so fewer people are attempting to come.
  • Others contend that the Trump administration is rightly disrupting the business model NGOs created during the Biden years, whereby they simultaneously facilitated and profited from resettling illegal aliens across the country; they also argue laws are needed to prevent such efforts in the future.
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