Democrats earned a surprise election win in Pennsylvania
Image: AP
This week, Democrat James Andrew Malone narrowly won a special election for a Pennsylvania state Senate seat his party hasn’t occupied since 1983, scoring a surprise upset for a party that’s been on its heels since the November election.
- Malone’s 50.0%-49.1% victory over Republican Josh Parsons came in Lancaster County, a district President Trump won by 16 points over Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.
A Trump referendum?
Some Democratic lawmakers point to their upset victory in Pennsylvania as a sign that voters are widely opposed to the Trump administration’s agenda thus far, and are making their disappointment known at the ballot box in addition to rallies and crowded town hall meetings across the country.
But Pennsylvania’s Republican Party chairman, Greg Rothman, says he doesn’t think Trump’s performance in office hurt his party’s candidate. Instead, Rothman pointed to Democrats doing a better job of inspiring voter turnout for the special election, which drew ~5x fewer participants compared to November.
A pair of upcoming elections will test those theories. In Florida, a special House election on Monday features a GOP candidate whose lead over the Democratic opponent is within the (large) margin of error in a recent poll––despite the contest occurring in a district Trump carried by 30 points in November.
And in Wisconsin, the battleground state where Trump won his narrowest margin in 2024, both parties are laser focused on a state Supreme Court election set for Tuesday.
- The contest will determine the tilt of an ideologically divided bench, whose decisions carry national implications for abortion rights, legislative redistricting, and election laws.
- Both sides have already spent a combined ~$81 million as of Tuesday—including $11 million from Elon Musk—eclipsing the previous all-time record for a US court race ($56 million).
It woud've been three: President Trump yesterday withdrew his nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) for US ambassador to the UN, saying “I don’t want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat” given the GOP’s slim House margin to enact his agenda.
📊 Flash poll: Do you think the Democrats’ surprise election win in Pennsylvania a sign of widespread national discontent with the Trump administration?
See a 360° view of what pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that the Pennsylvania election is an early harbinger of trouble to come for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms, though only time will tell whether Democrats can stay on the winning path.
- Others contend that a pair of special elections in Florida next week should tell us how much buyer’s remorse voters feel about Trump, after he’s done things he never promised and promised things he hasn’t done.
- “A Pennsylvania special election offers a warning for Republicans” –Chris Brennan, USA Today
- “Forget Polls. Watch the Florida Special Election Results.” –Mary Ellen Klas, Bloomberg
- “There Is a Way for Democrats to Stop Trump and Save America” –Ben Rhodes, NY Times
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that Tuesday’s special election shocker in Pennsylvania shows that the MAGA Republican ascendancy can be defeated, and that the GOP would be wise to take the loss as a warning.
- Others contend that Democrats’ win is another testament to Pennsylvania politics being especially malleable in recent years—especially during presidential elections—rather than a major referendum on Trump’s policies.
- “A Shock to the GOP From MAGA Country” –WSJ Editorial Board
- “Is swing state Pennsylvania swinging even more in some areas?” –Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Editorial Board
- “The First Trump Electoral Tests” –Karl Rove, WSJ
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