Iran is in nuclear breach, UN says

The UN's atomic watchdog yesterday formally declared Iran to be in breach of its nuclear nonproliferation obligations—designed to prevent the country from developing a nuclear weapon—for the first time in 20 years.

In response to the declaration, which cited Iran’s repeated refusal to explain undeclared nuclear material discovered in the country six years ago, Iran said it will escalate its nuclear program and establish a third uranium enrichment facility.

Why it’s a big deal: If Iran follows through on its threat to add a third enrichment site, it would allow the country to further speed up nuclear development.

• Iran currently has enough highly enriched uranium to make ~10 nuclear weapons, and is adding more at a rate of about one weapon’s worth per month. But with a third site active, its rate of enrichment would increase to ~6 nuclear weapons’ worth per month.
• However, Iran has consistently said its nuclear program is for civilian use, not to develop weapons.
• The US says it doesn’t have any evidence that Iran has decided to develop a nuclear weapon, but that if Tehran wanted to, it could likely develop working nukes within a few months.

The UN-Iran fallout comes at a critical time

The Trump admin recently reopened negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, in an attempt to strike a deal under which Tehran stops or sharply reduces its production of highly enriched uranium in exchange for reducing sanctions that have crippled its economy. But an agreement doesn’t appear imminent.

• President Trump said earlier this week that he had grown less confident about striking a deal with Iran, and that military action is on the table if nuclear talks fail.
• Israel has also long warned it will launch targeted military strikes at Iran if it believes Tehran is starting to build a nuclear weapon.

Israel’s pledge was finally fulfilled last night: Israel’s defense minister said the country carried out a preemptive strike on Iran—reportedly targeting nuclear and military sites, as well as Iran's top military officials and nuclear scientists. He also announced a special state of emergency across Israel in expectation of a retaliatory strike from Tehran.

Meanwhile…The US and Iran were scheduled to hold a sixth round of recent nuclear negotiations on Sunday. This won't be happening anymore, according to Iranian state media.

📊 Flash poll: In your opinion, how far should the US go to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons?

• Up to and including military action
• Use all possible options outside of military action
• Make some efforts, but don’t push too hard
• Don’t get involved
• Unsure/other