US lawmakers are locked in a redistricting arms race
Deliberate boundary choices can favor one party over another; Image: Spektrum der Wissenschaft/Manon Bischoff
This week, Texas Republicans began a special legislative session aimed at redrawing the state’s congressional maps in a way that creates up to five new winnable House seats for GOP lawmakers.
Background: The redistricting process involves a committee of policymakers who adjust—or completely redraw—the border lines of their state’s voting districts to reflect recent population shifts. Political gerrymandering, or manipulating these lines to favor one political party, is legal and commonplace, though racial gerrymandering is illegal.
- Texas’ effort, pushed strongly by President Trump, comes at an unusual time. Redistricting is typically only done after the decennial US census, most recently in 2020, or in response to a court order, Axios reports.
- But Trump and GOP leaders say Texas’ new maps are essential to helping the Republican party avoid losing House control in the 2026 midterms, as they did during Trump’s first term in 2018.
The Lone Star State has company
Republicans in Ohio are also looking to redraw their congressional map from one that favors the GOP by a 10-5 margin, to one that grants Republicans 12 or 13 House seats. Trump won the state last year by a 55%-44% margin.
On the Democratic side: In response to Texas’ redistricting plan, California Gov. Gavin Newsom last week pledged to “gerrymander” the state’s 52 congressional districts to try and pick up at least five Democratic House seats, saying “two can play at that game.” But it won't be easy, since California mandates that an independent commission draws congressional maps instead of partisan lawmakers.
- Democrats are also targeting more House seats from the battleground of Wisconsin, though the state Supreme Court recently declined to hear their redistricting case.
Big picture: Republicans hope to hold on to their slim congressional lead heading into the 2026 midterms. Democrats need to flip six seats next November to win a majority in the House, where all 435 members are reelected every two years. In the Senate—which elects ~⅓ of its members every two years—Dems need to flip four seats to regain a simple majority.
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Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that gerrymandering has been a poison that's seeped further into our political life than most realize, and both Republicans and Democrats—aka Newsom and TX Gov. Greg Abbott—should come together and agree to stop the self-destructive practice.
- Others contend that Newsom’s threat to gerrymander California is all hat and no cattle, since to follow through he would have to either end-run California voters, or call a special election that could cost hundreds of millions of dollars at a time the state is gushing red ink.
- “What if the Parties Struck a Truce on Self-Destructive Gerrymandering?” –Matt Robison, Newsweek
- “Newsom threatens Texas over power grab. He’s blowing smoke” –Mark Z. Barabak, LA Times
- “Newsom’s Threat to Match Trump’s Texas Power Grab Is Risky Business” –Ed Kilgore, Intelligencer
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that America’s current redistricting arms race is a lesson in how the 1965 Voting Rights Act has become a partisan tool that no longer serves its original purpose, and that Democrats first opened the door to the tactics Republicans are using.
- Others contend that if Newsome enacts a blatantly unconstitutional redistricting in California, it would represent him violating his oath of office to serve the wishes of Californians—and provide ample justification for lawmakers to impeach and remove him from office.
- “The Racial Gerrymander Boomerang” –WSJ Editorial Board
- “Gavin Newsom’s Blatantly Anti-Constitutional Nonsense” –Jim Geraghty, National Review
- “Texas shouldn’t use special session to redraw electoral maps” –Dallas Morning News Editorial Board
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