America’s jobs data has jumped into the spotlight
Image: Alyson Fligg/US Labor Department
On Friday, President Trump pulled out his favorite catchphrase and fired the top official at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It came after the agency published a weaker-than-expected July jobs report with significant downward revisions in data from previous months.
- The latest BLS report found the US added 73,000 jobs in July—well below expectations of ~100,000—and also recorded 258,000 fewer jobs than initially reported across May and June.
- The revisions left May as having added just 19,000 jobs, and June just 14,000.
Driving the exit: In a post on Truth Social, Trump claimed without evidence that BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer had “faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory,” and also “rigged” the most recent jobs report to harm Republicans.
- McEntarfer was nominated by then-President Biden to lead the BLS in July 2023, with the Senate voting 86-8 to confirm her in January 2024.
How does the current system work?
Every month, the BLS compiles an employment report from a pair of voluntary monthly surveys:
- One that covers ~60,000 US households…
- …and another covering ~121,000 businesses and government agencies selected to represent all US employers.
The household survey provides demographic data and the US unemployment rate—while the business survey returns data on pay, hours worked, and how many jobs the US economy added or subtracted.
Revisions are commonplace. Since many businesses haven’t finalized their payroll data in time for the BLS’ initial release, jobs reports are routinely revised from month to month as the agency receives more info.
- The agency’s overall collection rate typically rises from ~73% complete at the time of initial release to ~95% after two months.
- To account for this new data, the BLS issues two subsequent updates, or revisions, for each month’s jobs report.
But…The revisions for May and June were far larger than normal. The combined reduction of 258,000 for the two-month period marks the biggest such change since records began (outside of the Covid pandemic).
Big picture: Analysts warn that Trump’s firing of the top BLS jobs official could reduce or eliminate the integrity of the US government’s economic data, which is widely used by investors. If the official data is viewed as politicized, experts predict more companies and investors will rely on private sources like ADP, whose economic reports often diverge from government figures and are widely seen as inferior.
📊 Flash poll: In general, how do you feel about President Trump’s decision to fire the top BLS official after the agency published a weaker-than-expected July jobs report?
See a 360° view of what pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that it’s hard to overstate the peril that awaits the US, after Trump launched its $30 trillion economy into uncharted and dangerous territory by firing the BLS commissioner for political reasons—even after he praised the same data months ago.
- Others contend that while Trump’s firing of the BLS chief may be an attempt to shield himself politically from an impending economic recession, it won’t alter economic reality, and will also hurt his White House’s ability to respond should a recession come to pass.
- “The Bureau of Labor Statistics Is Not the Problem” –Kathryn Anne Edwards, Bloomberg
- “Trump's firing of his labor statistics chief is an ill-fated political maneuver” –Zeeshan Aleem, MSNBC
- “If Trump really wants to improve economic data, here are better ways” –WaPo Editorial Board
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that instead of firing McEntarfer, Trump should work with Congress to invest more in the government’s data collection capabilities so that policymakers and businesses have better numbers to work with—and voters have more accurate data to hold elected officials accountable.
- Others contend that Trump’s claims that BLS data was rigged are false, and the truth is jobs numbers are more volatile in recent years because of declining business survey response rates—and Trump’s trade/immigration policies are likely making that data even less reliable.
- “Taxpayers need good government data” –Washington Examiner Editorial Board
- “Trump Claims the Jobs Report Was Rigged. Was It?” –Allysia Finley, WSJ
- “Bad News Is Good News? The Left’s Premature Celebration Over Jobs Data” –Roger Kimball, American Greatness
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