Russia submits a ceasefire proposal, Ukraine counters
Image: BBC/Institute for the Study of War
Russian President Vladimir Putin last week presented the Trump admin with a proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine, in which Kyiv would give up significant amounts of Ukrainian territory in exchange for a halt to the fighting, per a WSJ report.
- The proposal was shared ahead of President Trump’s announcement on Friday that he plans to meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15 to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.
- The new date replaces Trump’s previous self-imposed deadline of this past Friday for Russia to agree to a ceasefire or face more US sanctions.
Under Putin’s deal
Russia says it will agree to a cease-fire in exchange for Ukraine handing over the remaining ~33% of the eastern Donetsk region that Kyiv still controls. The front line of battle would be frozen elsewhere, including in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions that Russia also claims as its own, but whose capitals are controlled by Ukraine.
- Additionally, Putin wants the ceasefire deal to include a promise that the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea regions of Ukraine be recognized globally as sovereign Russian territory.
Ukraine has other ideas
Ukraine on Saturday responded to Russia’s proposal with a counterproposal to the Trump admin—backed by European powers including Britain, Germany, and France—that reportedly calls for a ceasefire before any further steps are taken.
- The European proposal further states that any exchange of Ukrainian territory between Kyiv and Moscow must be reciprocal and backed by rock-solid security guarantees, including potential NATO membership for Ukraine to prevent further Russian attacks.
Big picture: Over the past 2+ years of being on the offensive, Russia has conquered less than 1% of Ukrainian territory—much of it in the Donetsk region—while losing hundreds of thousands of troops, the WSJ reports. Ukraine has also suffered mass casualties from the war, but independent sources say Kyiv’s total is equivalent to ~40% of the soldiers Russia has lost.
Looking ahead…The White House is reportedly considering inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, though no decisions have been finalized. European leaders have consistently maintained that Ukraine must be part of any discussions about ending the war.
📊 Flash poll (long-form): What are your thoughts on the separate peace proposals submitted to the Trump administration this week by Russia and Ukraine? The most thought-provoking and insightful answers will be featured in tomorrow’s newsletter.
See a 360° view of what pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that a final Russia-Ukraine peace deal involving territorial concessions could be workable, but Trump needs to be extra careful when dealing with Putin to ensure that he doesn’t get taken advantage of, and that Ukraine isn’t sold out for Russian “guarantees” that can easily be broken.
- Others contend that Putin’s upcoming meeting in Alaska is just a token gesture to test US resolve, and the Trump admin should follow through with its promised harsh sanctions targeting Russia’s economy, and also provide more military aid to Ukraine.
- “A risky peace gamble in Alaska” –WaPo Editorial Board
- “White House Shouldn’t Let Putin Off the Hook Now” –Bloomberg Editorial Board
- “Putin’s propaganda: the strongman myth hides great strategic weakness” –The Guardian Editorial Board
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that it’s time for Trump to bring the full sanctions hammer down hard on Russia, since Vlad will keep squirming his way out of agreeing to anything less than a temporary ceasefire, unless and until he has real reason to give.
- Others contend that recent sanctions on Russia have made the country turn its war machine into the engine of its national economy—meaning Putin will never agree to a Ukraine ceasefire, since he requires war to keep his regime afloat.
- “Team Trump mustn’t let slippery Putin squirm out of a real cease-fire” –NY Post Editorial Board
- “Why the Kremlin isn’t interested in a ceasefire in Ukraine ” –Ilan Berman, American Foreign Policy Council
- “Trump Targets Russia via India” –WSJ Editorial Board
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