Belief in the American Dream is vanishing
Image: Mario Tama
Uncle Sam’s economic ladder is missing more than a few rungs.
That’s according to the WSJ-NORC’s latest survey of Americans’ economic sentiment, published this week, which reveals record-low optimism about improving living standards across the US.
What they found:
- Just 25% of Americans say they have a good chance of improving their standard of living, an all-time low in surveys dating to 1987.
- Nearly 70% of people believe the American Dream—or the idea that hard work pays off—no longer holds true or never did, the highest level in nearly 15 years.
- 17% say the US economy stands above all others in the world, while 39% say other nations have better economies (a 15-point rise from 2021).
- 78% aren’t confident that life for the next generation will be better than their own.
The main wake-up call
Recent polling identifies the time period immediately following the Covid pandemic as when Americans’ opinions on economic mobility took a turn for the worse.
- From 1986-2020, the share of US adults who said they have a good chance of improving their standard of living was solidly above 50%.
- But ever since a 1.5-year break in data collection that ended in mid-2022, that share has consistently hovered around 25%.
On a similar note: A trio of Stanford researchers found that US economic sentiment moved largely in tandem with economic metrics from 2005 until Covid—then diverged, with sentiment turning more negative than predicted by traditional economic measures.
“Key” economic data vs. reality
The survey marks the latest evidence of a disparity between fairly promising economic data, and what many Americans are experiencing in their day-to-day lives.
- For example: While the stock market has reached dozens of new record-highs this year, participation is skewed towards the richest 10%, who own ~90% of all public equity wealth.
Big picture: The issue of growing inequality is leading voters in the US and other Western nations to increasingly turn to autocratic leaders, according to Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds. Dalio this week said he thinks “what is happening now politically and socially is analogous to what happened around the world in the 1930-40 period.”
📊 Flash poll: Do you think the American Dream—that if you work hard you'll get ahead—still holds true, never held true, or once held true but doesn’t anymore?
See a 360° view of what pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that the American Dream is part of a persistent myth that success is always earned, and that wealth and power can be reliably seen as indicators of hard work and talent—which has been false throughout history due to systemic imbalances.
- Others contend that the old version of the American Dream seems increasingly irrelevant for people in their teens and 20s, as homeownership is no longer the goal for everyone thanks to rising costs and other factors.
- “The American Dream and the Myth of Meritocracy” –George Cassidy Payne, New York Amsterdam News
- “Gen Z: How Will You Remake the American Dream?” –Jessica Grose, NY Times
- “Is the American Dream still alive today?” –Keith Moore, WaPo
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that traditional markers of adulthood are shifting for younger adults, signaling both a disintegration of the American Dream—and the remaking of a new such dream for the modern era.
- Others contend that the economic markers associated with the American Dream are not the ends in themselves, and therefore policymakers should avoid making welfare programs too widespread to prevent Americans from achieving that dream.
- “Millennials are avoiding divorce. But their American Dream has changed.” –Chicago Tribune Editorial Board
- “Welfare stands in the way of the American dream” –Randy Hicks, Washington Examiner
- “I'm Gen Z and many in my generation lost faith in the American Dream. Prove them wrong” –Steven Wang, Fox News
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