Major election upset in Texas could spell trouble for GOP
Image: US Elections/Instagram
A Democratic candidate flipped a state Senate seat located in deep-red Texas over the weekend, marking a 31-point swing in party support compared to 2024—and raising some eyebrows in Washington ahead of the November midterms.
Let’s break it down: Saturday’s runoff election for a state Senate seat took place in a district that Republicans have held since the early 1990s, with local voters supporting Trump by a 17-point margin in 2024.
- But in a major upset, Democratic candidate Taylor Rehmet ended up defeating Republican Leigh Wambsganss by a margin of 57%-43% (with nearly all the votes tallied).
- Rehmet’s victory came despite being significantly outspent on the campaign trail by Wambsganss, whose support also included a social media endorsement from Trump.
A warning sign for Republicans?
Democratic leaders and some GOP lawmakers have called the result a wake-up call for Republicans nationally and a sign that Dems are poised for a strong performance in the midterm elections amid growing backlash to the Trump administration.
They also point out that the result in Texas fits a broader pattern of Democrats overperforming in special elections since Trump returned to the White House in January 2024.
On the flip side: Some GOP leaders and analysts say the outcome was likely shaped more by timing, rather than signaling a national trend, as it came shortly after the widely publicized fatal shooting of Alex Pretti by ICE agents in Minneapolis.
- Many Republicans also note that special elections like the one in Texas tend to be unpredictable due to lower voter turnout.
- Others highlight the fact that the GOP has outperformed Democrats in voter registration since 2024 across every state with tracking available.
What do the polls say?...Democrats currently lead Republicans on a generic congressional ballot, with 47.2% support compared to 42.5% for the GOP, per the latest data from RealClearPolitics.
📊 Flash poll: If the midterms were held today, which Congressional candidate would you vote for?
- The Republican one
- The Democratic one
- One from a third party (Libertarian, Green, etc.)
- I don’t plan on voting
- I haven’t made up my mind yet
See a 360° view of what pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that cracks are opening in working-class White voters’ support for Trump and Republicans, largely due to their recent handling of the economy, in a trend that could prove crucial to Democrats’ prospects in the November midterms.
- Others contend that Texas’ election result shows that many Americans are growing exhausted and frightened by Trump’s scorched-earth, hyperpartisan approach to the presidency, in which he’s been treating Democrats not as political opponents but as “traitors.”
- “Trump's Base Is Tiring of Him at a Bad Time” –Ronald Brownstein, Bloomberg
- “The Message From Texas Voters: We’re Neighbors, Not Enemies” –Thomas L. Friedman, NY Times
- “Republicans Have a Problem That’s Bigger Than Texas” –Mary Ellen Klas, Bloomberg
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that the election result in Texas represents a voter backlash against the Trump admin and its mass deportation debacles, and that Republicans should switch up their strategy to move the conversation on immigration instead to Democratic border failures.
- Others contend that while the Texas result may send shockwaves through the political world, there are several mitigating circumstances in this particular race that could mean the midterm implications are less dire for Republicans than they appear.
- “A Texas Election Jolt to the GOP” –WSJ Editorial Board
- “The Democratic win in Texas was shocking, except for this” –Henry Olsen, Washington Post
- “Texas GOP gets a wake-up call from Taylor Rehmet in Tarrant County” –Dallas Morning News Editorial Board
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