Incumbent lawmakers could be in trouble this midterm season
Image: Sherman Smith
The 2026 midterm season officially kicked off this week with primary elections in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas.
And, if the initial results are anything to go by, it appears this year’s midterms will be taking place on shifting political ground for incumbent US lawmakers.
Some sitting members of Congress were forced into runoffs as a result of Tuesday’s elections, while others fell to challengers from within their own parties.
A few examples:
- Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), a 23-year senator who helped shape the modern GOP in Texas, was forced into a runoff by state AG Ken Paxton.
- Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), a four-term incumbent, was defeated in the GOP primary by Texas state Rep. Steve Toth.
- North Carolina state Senate leader Phil Berger (R), who some consider the most powerful lawmaker in the state, trails small-town sheriff challenger Sam Page by just two votes.
- Rep. Al Green (D-TX), who usually doesn’t face any primary opposition, is headed to a May runoff against Rep. Christian Menefee, who became a member of Congress just last month after winning a special election.
These results are especially notable, given that incumbent members of Congress have had near-record-high success rates in recent decades when running for re-election (90%-95%).
A tale of two parties
For Republicans, it appears alignment with President Trump and the current White House administration is paramount. “The candidates who struggled were almost exclusively the ones without [Trump’s] support,” said GOP pollster Landon Wall.
For Democrats, analysts say the results indicate the party’s voting base is hungry for change and ready to oust its veteran members and senior politicians, whom many believe aren’t opposing Trump’s agenda aggressively enough.
However…Some experts have pushed back against drawing any firm conclusions from just a few early races, and suggested the quirks of individual races may have played a bigger role in some places compared to overall voting trends.
Looking ahead…Two other states have primary elections scheduled this month: Mississippi (March 10), and Illinois (March 17). The next elections after that aren’t until May, when 11 states will hold primaries spread across the month.
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Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that one of the main takeaways from Tuesday’s primary action, especially in Texas, is that voters on the whole are defying orthodoxy and souring on incumbents, rather than allowing them to breeze to re-election.
- Others contend that early 2026 primary action shows that Trump’s endorsement still means a lot to determining which GOP candidates will win, as almost all of the candidates he endorsed on a federal level won or led the vote going into runoffs.
- “Four Takeaways From the Texas Primaries” –Mary Ellen Klas, Bloomberg
- “Lessons from 2026’s first primary night” –Dan Merica and Matthew Choi, WaPo
- “What Texas tells us about the 2026 midterms” –Baltimore Sun Editorial Board
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that this week’s primary elections show just how conflicted voters appear to be when asked to pick a path forward for both parties, and that Republicans should be concerned by high turnout and improved candidate quality among Democrats.
- Others contend that even though the party that doesn’t hold the White House almost always makes gains in US midterm elections, that prospect is far from guaranteed for Democrats this year, since many of them think that attacking Trump for every action and word is sufficient to get elected.
- “Cornyn, Paxton head to runoff as Texas Republicans break on MAGA” –Nicole Russell, USA Today
- “Midterms Are Dems’ to Lose—and They May” –Karl Rove, WSJ
- “Trump, Iran, and the midterm elections” –Byron York, Washington Examiner
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