💬 Discussion

Trump announces ceasefire after escalating threats on Iran

Wednesday, Apr 8

Images: AFP | Iran State TV

President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran last night, roughly 90 minutes before his 8 pm ET deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz amid threats of destroying Iran’s entire “civilization.”

  • Trump said the decision came after Iran submitted a 10-point proposal that was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”
  • The two-week pause in fighting was confirmed by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, which committed to negotiations with the US in Islamabad beginning Friday.

How we got here

In a series of posts on Truth Social Sunday morning, Trump said he would authorize major strikes on Iran’s civilian energy and transportation infrastructure if his demands weren’t met by the deadline of last night.

“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah,” Trump wrote.

The President further escalated his aggressive rhetoric toward Iran yesterday morning ahead of the 8 pm ET deadline. “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

But 90 minutes prior to the deadline, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire to negotiate over Iran’s latest proposed deal.

What’s in the proposal?

While full details haven’t been made public, Arab and Iranian officials have disclosed nine of the ten conditions in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz:

  1. A permanent end of hostilities
  2. Guarantees that the US and Israel won’t attack Iran again
  3. Cease-fire agreements that include Israel’s war with Hezbollah in Lebanon
  4. All sanctions on Iran lifted
  5. All sanctions lifted on Iran’s allies
  6. Iran takes control of the Strait of Hormuz
  7. Iran can charge fees on crossings through the Strait
  8. The toll money is used for Iran's reconstruction
  9. Toll fees in Hormuz will be shared with Oman

According to reports, the version of the plan released by Iran in Farsi also included the phrase “acceptance of enrichment” for Iran's nuclear program. But that wording was apparently missing in English versions shared by Iranian diplomats.

Other major war updates

The US reportedly struck military targets on the key Iranian oil hub of Kharg Island yesterday, marking the second time the island has been targeted since the fighting began.

Meanwhile, Iran shot down two US aircraft in separate incidents on Friday, marking the conflict’s first such losses. While one of the aircraft was able to reach friendly territory before the crew ejected safely, the two airmen inside the other downed aircraft were forced to eject and land in Iranian territory.

  • The US military rescued the first downed crew member from Iran shortly after he ejected.
  • But the other downed crew member had to flee and hide in a mountain crevice for ~36 hours before being rescued in a US special forces operation inside Iran.

Saturday’s rescue operation—carried out without any Americans being killed—helped avoid a potential hostage situation, after Tehran reportedly offered ~$60,000 for the airman’s capture.

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Sprinkles from the Left

  • Some commentators argue that the problem in Iran is that tactical violence hasn’t produced any durable strategic effect, causing Trump and the US government to lower the public’s expectations and hope their language obscures the fact that any coherent standard of success has collapsed.
  • Others contend that no matter how much the Iranian regime deserves to fall, no matter how much the world economy is disrupted by its threats to shipping, no matter how much leverage in negotiation the president may gain by these threats, those ends cannot justify treating a country’s entire infrastructure as a military target.
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Sprinkles from the Right

  • Some commentators argue that striking indiscriminately at critical infrastructure would be wrong as well as unwise, punishing the Iranian people we need on our side, and the obvious solution is to discriminate between types of infrastructure based on military importance—not plunging 90 million people into darkness.
  • Others contend that Trump’s threat to ramp up attacks on Iran, targeting its bridges and power plants, unless it agrees to open the strait is not just justified — it’s generous given that Iran doesn’t abide by international law. They also say Trump-haters and lefty media types falsely claim such actions would constitute war crimes.
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