What’s going on with war in Iran?
Image: Majid Saeedi
Iranian officials yesterday accused the US of a "grave violation" of the ongoing ceasefire between both countries, as we approach the three-month mark since the war began.
- US Central Command said it carried out "self-defense strikes" overnight Monday on “Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines” in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran responded by launching surface-to-air missiles at American planes, prompting the US military to hit back at missile-launch sites in Iran, per officials.
Iran on Tuesday said it would retaliate for the US strikes, which it called a violation of the two sides’ ongoing cease-fire. But an Iranian gov’t spokesperson also signaled diplomacy would likely continue, with Tehran remaining in ongoing peace talks with US officials in Qatar.
How we got here
The military exchange overnight Monday followed mixed signals from President Trump over the weekend. After saying on Saturday that a deal with Tehran was largely negotiated, the president appeared to change course on Monday and indicate the agreement is still being worked on.
While international mediators—including Pakistan, Qatar, and Egypt—are working to help the US and Iran bridge gaps in their positions, both sides still appear far apart on several key issues:
- Iran is seeking economic relief by regaining control of some of the ~$100 billion in Iranian assets frozen by the West, and regaining access to world oil markets.
- In return, Iran is offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but with new "protection" or service fees on commercial vessels.
- Tehran is also resisting US efforts to dismantle its nuclear program, and has rejected any deal that forces Iran to hand over its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium.
On the US side…Negotiators are demanding that Iran halt all uranium enrichment and dispose of its existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which could potentially be made into nuclear weapons within weeks or months.
The US also wants the Strait of Hormuz unconditionally opened, and is insisting that any financial concessions like unfreezing Iranian assets only come after America’s other conditions are met.
The other elephant in the room
International mediators and US officials also say they’re worried about who’s really calling the shots in Iran.
- New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei hasn’t been seen or heard in public since being appointed to succeed his father, who was killed on the war’s first day.
- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an elite branch of the military, appears to increasingly be calling the shots, rather than the country’s elected government (which is participating in peace talks).
Looking ahead…US-Iran peace talks in Qatar are expected to last several more days as negotiators work on fine-tuning a potential deal framework.
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Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that Trump and his admin will all be remembered as the team that gave the Islamic republic a second lease on life just when it was more on the ropes than ever. They also say only two major questions remain: 1) How big a plate of crow will President Trump have to eat to end this conflict with at least some achievements, and 2) Will Trump tell us the crow he’s eating is lobster, or filet mignon?
- Others contend that Trump’s latest peace plan represents a risky bet that Iran’s divided leadership will opt for postwar modernization, rather than continuing conflict with the US and Israel. But at this point, Trump and his admin have backed themselves into a corner where there doesn’t appear to be any better options available.
- “It’s Crow, Mr. Trump, Not Lobster” –Thomas L. Friedman, NY Times
- “Trump’s Iran exit ramp is a long shot. He doesn’t have a better option.” –David Ignatius, WaPo
- “The Iran War Worsens America’s Democratic Erosion” –NY Times Editorial Board
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that Iran is trying to establish a new status quo with the US where the Strait of Hormuz is “reopened” with new fees paid to Iran for crossing. But they also contend that Iran risks overreaching in doing so, since decisive US or Israeli action can reverse the dynamic where Tehran is calling the shots in negotiations.
- Others contend that Trump shouldn’t rush into agreeing on any peace deal that’s too favorable for Iran, which it appeared his initial deal announced Sunday may have done, since putting an end to Iran’s apocalyptic nuclear ambitions is a job that must not be left half-finished.
- “Iran’s ‘Skirmish’ Strategy in the Strait” –WSJ Editorial Board
- “Don’t rush into a bad Iran peace deal — they must give up nukes” –NY Post Editorial Board
- “Iran’s proxy war has crossed oceans and is now knocking on America’s door” –Ammon Blair, Fox News
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