Democrats are still figuring out their midterm playbook
Image: Paul Ratje
The ongoing primary season is sending mixed signals about which approach will prove most successful for Democratic party heading into November’s midterms, with Tuesday’s slate of elections producing different outcomes for progressive and moderate candidates.
- In Wisconsin, moderate David Crowley narrowly defeated Democratic Socialists of America member and state Rep. Francesca Hong (~40% vs. ~39%) in the Democratic primary for governor, pulling off an upset after Hong had led by double digits in recent polls.
- In Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan decisively defeated Rep. Angie Craig in the Democratic Senate primary (~59% vs. ~39%). Flanagan was backed by several prominent progressives, while Craig received more support from moderate and establishment-aligned Democrats.
- And in Michigan last week, progressive Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in the Democratic Senate primary, despite significantly underperforming his polling numbers.
So, which approach wins?
The results add to an ongoing debate among Democrats over whether the recent momentum behind progressive candidates will translate to success against Republicans in November, or whether more moderate candidates will fare better with the broader electorate.
- Progressives argue the recent wins reflect support for their ideas, rather than simply frustration with the Democratic establishment.
- They point to El-Sayed’s victory in Michigan—where he defeated a more moderate opponent despite a major advertising disadvantage—as evidence that campaigns centered on affordability, Medicare for All, and reducing the influence of money in politics can resonate beyond heavily liberal areas.
Meanwhile…Moderate Democrats question whether that success will carry over to November. Centrist groups argue progressive candidates can benefit from enthusiasm and outsider status in Democratic primaries, but that positions associated with the movement could become liabilities with a broader electorate.
Concern has grown following El-Sayed’s win in Michigan, a key swing state, with centrist political org Third Way now planning to spend $15 million through 2028 on an effort aimed at discrediting democratic socialism.
Big picture: A RealClearPolling average of generic congressional ballot polls currently shows the Democratic Party favored over Republicans by ~7 percentage points.
Looking ahead… The November 3 midterms are just under three months away, with eight states scheduled to hold primary elections between now and then—including Alaska, California, Florida, and Wyoming this Tuesday.
📊 Flash poll: Which version of the Democratic Party do you most want to see?
See a 360° view of what pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that progressive candidates are gaining ground by rebuilding the Democratic Party’s weakened grassroots organizing, focusing on voters’ concerns and developing relationships in communities, rather than relying primarily on fundraising, advertising and digital outreach.
- Others contend that moderate and progressive Democrats must put aside their ideological differences and unite behind the party’s nominees, arguing that continued attacks on progressive candidates could weaken Democrats in the midterms and undermine their ability to counter President Trump’s agenda.
- “Socialists Are Winning Because They Listen to People” –Tressie McMillan Cottom, NYT
- “Corporate Democrats Must Realize the Enemy Is Trump and the Fascists—Not Progressives” –Miles Mogulescu, Common Dreams
- “MAGA or the DSA? America deserves a better choice” –Abby McCloskey, Seattle Times
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that the Democratic Socialists of America promote an unrealistic vision of socialism that promises relief from work, bills, and other economic pressures while ignoring the practical and constitutional limits of implementing its sweeping political agenda.
- Others contend that the DSA is using its growing electoral success to push the Democratic Party toward a radical agenda, arguing that party leaders must reject the movement before it gains greater control and reshapes the party around policies that would fundamentally alter American government and institutions.
- “DSA socialism is Peter Pan politics for sandbox revolutionaries” –George F. Will, WaPo
- “Democrats have to shove socialists out of the party” –The Dallas Morning News Editorial Board
- “NYC’s DSA chapter may just be the whitest party in the entire city” –NY Post Editorial Board
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