Americans’ views of Trump 2.0 are souring ahead of the midterms
Image: RealClearPolitics
Approval of President Trump’s job performance has turned further negative over a year-and-a-half into his second administration, with his popularity likely to play a major role in the midterm elections two months from now.
The current polling picture
Recent data shows more Americans disapprove than approve of Trump’s job performance by a significant margin. Trump’s approval rating currently stands at 40.0% (vs. 56.6% disapproval), down from a peak of 50%+ approval in early 2024 and close to the lowest level of support seen in Trump’s second term, per RealClearPolitics’ polling aggregator.
The Iran war has been a particular pain point, with 68% of Americans saying Trump isn’t handling the war well compared to 25% who say he’s handling it somewhat or very well in a recent UMass Amherst poll.
Trump’s marks on the economy aren’t much better:
- A recent Reuters/Ipsos survey found 71% of Americans say they disapprove of Trump's handling of the cost of living.
- This category ranks as the top issue for voters, with 47% of people in the same poll saying cost of living is the most important factor in deciding their midterm vote.
- Most Americans also say Trump is handling inflation “not well at all” (57%), compared to 22% who say he’s handling it somewhat or very well, UMass Amherst found.
Despite those numbers, President Trump is planning to have a major presence on the midterm campaign trail, including a star role in next week’s unusual midterm GOP convention. He urged voters last week to treat November as though his own name were on the ballot, with some Republican leaders betting Trump can help turn out their base in key races across the country.
That strategy isn’t necessarily being embraced across the GOP.
- Retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) says some of Trump’s recent actions “smell like chaos,” and has urged Republicans in competitive races to break with the president on issues like tariffs.
- Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-OK) recently warned that some traditional Republican voters could stay home or vote Democratic in the midterms amid what she described as “Trump fatigue.”
Across the aisle: Democrats believe the current political environment gives them an opening to win control of Congress, with election analysts recently shifting several competitive races in their direction. Democrats would need to pick up three House seats and four Senate seats to win back majorities in both chambers from Republicans.
Looking ahead…This week, Trump told GOP lawmakers he plans to spend the final 30 days before Election Day campaigning in the ~35 House and Senate races that could determine control of Congress, including key Senate contests in Alaska and Texas.
📊 Flash poll: In general, do you approve or disapprove of President Trump’s job performance so far during his second term?
See a 360° view of what pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that Republicans are increasingly vulnerable heading into the midterms as Trump loses support outside his core base, particularly over Iran, the economy and inflation. They also say putting Trump front and center in the midterm campaign is unlikely to win those voters back.
- Others contend that widespread dissatisfaction with the economy, immigration, trade, and foreign policy is driving the president’s sinking approval ratings, and also argue that Republicans risk paying a price in the midterms if they dismiss those concerns rather than address them.
- “Trump’s Popularity Has Reached a Critical Point –David M. Drucker, Bloomberg
- “Trump's approval is circling the toilet. I'm delighted.” –Rex Huppke, USA Today
- “Trump’s New Insult Won’t Save Republicans” –Jamelle Bouie, NY Times
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that Trump’s plan to make himself the face of the GOP’s midterm campaign could hurt Republicans in competitive races because of his low approval ratings and tendency to dominate the news, and say the party would be better off keeping the focus on its candidates.
- Others contend that President Trump’s low approval ratings heading into the midterms reflect a broader problem for the GOP: its politics have become too focused on division and attacking opponents rather than offering voters an optimistic vision for the country, putting them in a tough position when campaigning for election.
- “Trump Sticks With a Losing Midterm Plan” –Karl Rove, WSJ
- “Trump’s midterm convention and American’s grim mood” –Dallas Morning News Editorial Board
- “Trump has been the ultimate Christian defender — except on one critical issue” –Tim Moore, Washington Examiner
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