Congress' new youth wave has run into a wall
Image: Chet Strange
Gen Z and millennials came out in force ahead of November's midterms to try and shake up the makeup of Congress. But their push to bring some younger faces to Capitol Hill hasn't quite gone according to plan.
Young candidates took a big swing
Gen Z and millennials accounted for 36.4% of congressional candidates this election cycle, up from 23.4% in 2024, per a new analysis from nonprofit Future Caucus shared with Axios. The nonprofit identified 3,918 candidates who filed to run for Congress, a 31% increase from the previous cycle.
But making it through to November has proven much harder:
- Only 21.2% of Gen Z candidates were still in the race as of early September, compared with 30.2% of millennials, 41.1% of Gen Xers, and 44.5% of baby boomers.
- Nearly 33% of Gen Z candidates failed to qualify for a primary ballot, compared with 18.3% of millennials and 9.4% of Gen Xers.
Experience may have played a role. Just 1.7% of Gen Z candidates and 9% of millennials had served in a state legislature prior to running. Nearly 40% of congressional challengers with that experience advanced to the general election this cycle, compared with ~26% of those without it.
Two 29-year-olds did manage to break through: Democrat Melat Kiros defeated longtime Rep. Diana DeGette in a Colorado House primary, while Republican Joe Mitchell secured the GOP nomination for an open House seat in Iowa.
Meanwhile, midterm tensions keep heating up
The Justice Department sued California yesterday asking a judge to order the state to set aside mail-in ballots from voters federal officials suspect aren't US citizens, and only count them once their citizenship is verified. California Secretary of State Shirley Weber says the DOJ hasn't provided evidence to support its claims that noncitizens—who are prohibited from voting in federal elections—are registered to vote.
In Texas, voting rights groups sued the state's Department of Public Safety and secretary of state after a software glitch created a backlog of ~600,000 voter-registration applications.
- The glitch left some residents who registered through the DMV off the voter rolls, raising concerns they could show up to vote only to find they weren't registered.
- But local officials say most of the backlog had been cleared by Wednesday, and there's little risk of eligible voters being unable to cast their ballots.
Over in Georgia, the first day of early voting set a new state record for a midterm election, with the 188,000+ ballots cast on Tuesday marking an increase of ~50,000 compared to opening day for the 2022 midterms.
Looking ahead: Some form of early in-person voting has already begun in 22 states, with another 24 states plus Washington, D.C., set to begin early voting in the coming days and weeks ahead of Election Day on November 3. See your state’s schedule.
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Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that Democrats have a real opportunity to win back Congress in the midterms, but favorable polls alone won't get them there. They argue that reaching new voters, boosting turnout, and preparing for potential challenges to election results will be key to turning that opportunity into victories.
- Others contend that winning control of Congress in the midterms could give Democrats an opportunity to shape the country's political future. They argue that the party should start developing a clear policy agenda on issues like affordability, healthcare, and government reform so it can make the most of that opportunity.
- “Democrats must not take their opportunity to win the midterms for granted” –-Donna Brazile, The Hill
- “Democrats Shouldn’t Wait Two More Years” –David Wallace-Wells, NY Times
- “Your midterm vote matters” –Michigan Daily Editorial Board
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that Republicans have a solid strategy for the midterms, but President Trump's constant distractions and mixed messages are getting in the way of putting it into action. They argue that the GOP needs to spend less time generating controversy and more time highlighting its accomplishments, addressing voters' economic concerns, and drawing clear contrasts with Democrats.
- Others contend that President Trump's efforts to change election rules ahead of the midterms have largely failed, as courts have blocked many of his attempts to restrict voting and expand federal control over elections. They argue that legal challenges have helped protect the voting process, but continued vigilance and strong voter turnout will be essential to prevent further interference.
- “A Blundering 2026 Midterm Campaign” –Karl Rove, WSJ
- “Three weeks out, Trump’s election meddling lies mostly in ruins” –David Ignatius, WaPo
- “The polls are lying: Why the Republicans are about to sweep the midterm elections” –Michael Levin, Washington Examiner
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