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In your opinion, when – if ever – will an AI system achieve artificial general intelligence?

Thursday, Apr 18

In your opinion, when – if ever – will an AI system achieve artificial general intelligence?

Within the next 2 years (27%) – "Consider where we were even a year ago. AI is moving at speeds that we can't even comprehend. My guess is that it will far exceed human capabilities, and quickly, too."

  • "Being in higher education, AI is learning material faster than we can. It's also hard to keep up with regulation programs as the AI language is becoming too similar to our own."

In 2-5 years (24%) – "Really, we can’t know. What we do know is the evidence. And the fact is AI is growing exponentially smarted by the day and embraced by users. My household alone, 2 of 4 uses it on a weekly basis, the other daily. The only reason I don’t say 2 years is because of the push back. Otherwise, I know it is coming fast."

  • "I believe it’s possible that AI technology is already more advanced than the general public is aware of."

In 5-10 years (21%) – "People tend to overestimate how much a new technology will change the world in 5 years, and underestimate how much it will change the world in 10 years, according to Amara's law."

  • "It's always the last bit that's the hardest to engineer. Getting most of the way is the easy part. The AI I have access to at work (GPT-based) is still quite dumb most of the time. It seems nowhere near being able to make complex decisions. I work with smart people though. Probably a lot easier to surpass a lower baseline."

In 10-20 years (8%) – "I hope never, but I’m sure it will be developed eventually."

In 20+ years (8%) – "if you showed current tech to someone from 50 years ago, they'd say we already achieved AGI. But the definition changes over time as AI processes become demystified, so 'true' AGI is still a while off."

Never (12%) – "Intelligence is measured in various ways, and no AI will be able to truly understand what it is simply programed to regurgitate. True intelligence involves human reason, the capacity for emotional connections, and motivation. My AP classes just finished reading Brave New World, and although the clones in the novel are capable of many things, the world is not ideal because nothing can replace individuality and the need for free will. General intelligence? Perhaps, but I doubt it."

  • "I'm not convinced that an AI system will actually achieve artificial general intelligence. From a strict knowledge standpoint, we're probably already there but there are social and emotional parts that go into general intelligence that AI will never fully be able to replicate. I'm also skeptical about the capacity for curiosity. Any machine can combine information or filter a data set and provide an answer based on the coding it was given, but true general intelligence includes some aspects that I don't think we'll ever be able to figure out how to successfully program into AI."
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