Within the next 2 years (27%) – "Consider where we were even a year ago. AI is moving at speeds that we can't even comprehend. My guess is that it will far exceed human capabilities, and quickly, too."
In 2-5 years (24%) – "Really, we can’t know. What we do know is the evidence. And the fact is AI is growing exponentially smarted by the day and embraced by users. My household alone, 2 of 4 uses it on a weekly basis, the other daily. The only reason I don’t say 2 years is because of the push back. Otherwise, I know it is coming fast."
In 5-10 years (21%) – "People tend to overestimate how much a new technology will change the world in 5 years, and underestimate how much it will change the world in 10 years, according to Amara's law."
In 10-20 years (8%) – "I hope never, but I’m sure it will be developed eventually."
In 20+ years (8%) – "if you showed current tech to someone from 50 years ago, they'd say we already achieved AGI. But the definition changes over time as AI processes become demystified, so 'true' AGI is still a while off."
Never (12%) – "Intelligence is measured in various ways, and no AI will be able to truly understand what it is simply programed to regurgitate. True intelligence involves human reason, the capacity for emotional connections, and motivation. My AP classes just finished reading Brave New World, and although the clones in the novel are capable of many things, the world is not ideal because nothing can replace individuality and the need for free will. General intelligence? Perhaps, but I doubt it."
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