Good morning. On today’s docket:

• ❌ The business challenges facing X, one year later
• 🤔 Did the MLB’s rule changes this season actually work?
• 🤑 Taylor Swift has a new moniker = billionaire

… and more.

🚀⏰ Ready, Set, Go: Today’s news should be about a 5.01-minute read.

P.S. First time reading? Subscribe here for free.

"The sweetest pleasure arises from difficulties overcome."

–Publilius Syrus (85 B.C. – 43 B.C.)

It’s been exactly one year to the day since Elon Musk completed his purchase of Twitter for $44 billion. And, in addition to looking quite different than when it was purchased (Twitter → X), the social media platform is doing its best American Ninja Warrior impression to navigate a series of current business challenges.

A few of the obstacles:

• Advertising revenue is declining. Many of X’s top advertisers, including Mondelez International, Coca-Cola, IBM, and HBO, are spending less than they were before Musk took over, largely because of policies he’s implemented that have made the service more chaotic and unpredictable, per Bloomberg. Collectively, X’s top five advertisers are spending 67% less on ads than they did before the acquisition, and Musk tweeted (X’d?) in September that overall ad sales were still down by more than half. Insider Intelligence forecasts X will finish 2023 with $2.98 billion in ad revenue, compared to $4.14 billion in 2022.
• Users are declining. Since X isn’t a publicly traded company, user numbers are hard to find. However – when Musk purchased the company it had around 238 million daily active users, and, according to data firm Apptopia, about 13% fewer users signed on each day in September compared with last October.
• The business has a heavy debt load. Seven banks, including Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Barclays, lent Musk around $13 billion to buy Twitter. The interest payments on this debt amount to more than $1.2 billion/year.

To counter many of these issues, Musk has trimmed staff, from about 7,500 employees to around 1,500 today, and introduced a paid subscription. But its revenue uplift has been relatively nominal – a new analysis from independent researcher Travis Brown estimates between 950,000 and 1.2 million people now pay for X’s $8 monthly premium service, equating to a max of $115 million in annual revenue.

📸 Big picture: While Musk is the richest person in the world, with a net worth of about $220 billion, most of that wealth isn’t liquid. Meaning if X can’t support itself financially, Musk would need to come up with alternative financing solutions like selling Tesla stock – which has its own repercussions.

📊 Flash poll: What’s your current perception of X overall?

• Positive
• Negative
• Indifferent

💥 Israel-Hamas war update: Israel’s military yesterday morning carried out what appears to be its biggest incursion into Gaza since the recent war began on October 7, an incident which Israeli officials described as a “targeted raid” aimed at preparing their troops for an eventual invasion of Gaza. Hamas yesterday claimed nearly 50 of the ~220 Israeli hostages captured in the militant group’s surprise attack earlier this month have been killed by Israeli airstrikes, and also released a report including the names and ages of 7,028 Palestinians it identified as having been killed since the war began (though neither figure could be independently verified).

🇨🇷 Costa Rican officials are investigating the largest national bank heist in the country’s history. Staff first noticed ~$6 million missing from the bank’s vaults three weeks ago, but the theft itself most likely occurred in August or even earlier, bank officials revealed at a press conference this week. Costa Rican authorities haven’t released any information about how the heist was executed and no arrests have been made, though the bank suspended five workers over their potential connection to the theft.

​​🇱🇸🇿🇦 A bird flu outbreak in South Africa is threatening local chicken supplies. Lesotho, a country entirely surrounded by South Africa, banned all poultry imports from its neighbor this week due to a recent uptick in bird flu cases reported there. South African farmers have been forced to cull more than 7 million egg-laying hens over the past year – equivalent to between 20%–30% of the country's entire stock – leading to an ongoing shortage of eggs and poultry in the surrounding area.

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Southwest Airlines reported Q3 earnings yesterday. And while revenue increased ~5% year over year, the company’s net income dropped ~30%.

The cause? In large part, a classic case of supply outpacing demand. Airlines have added flight capacity this year while consumers have returned to more traditional bookings, traveling during peak vacation periods or holidays. And more capacity + less travelers = lower fares and lower margins.

• Case in point: Southwest’s unit revenue – passenger revenue per seat (empty or full) flown one mile – is expected to drop between 9%–11% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, while its capacity is up about 21%.

This problem is also plaguing other domestically focused budget airlines. Spirit Airlines reported quarterly results yesterday, saying they’ve been losing pricing power and cutting fares to fill seats. Frontier is running into the same issue.

Which brings us to a silver lining: discounts are dominating heading into the holidays. Data from online travel agency Hopper shows average domestic round-trip flights for this Thanksgiving are down 14% from last year, and fares for the Christmas travel season are 12% lower than a year ago.

The World Series starts tonight, with the Diamondbacks facing off against the Rangers, marking the official close of a season in which the MLB took a page from the Savannah Bananas’ playbook and enacted new rules aimed at creating a more entertaining and engaging product for fans.

Notable changes this year included: a pitch clock limiting the amount of time between pitches, a ban on exaggerated defensive shifts, and slightly larger bases (except for home plate). The rules came as part of a league-wide effort to quicken the pace of play, increase the number of balls put in play, and encourage more base stealing.

The results:

• More than 70 million fans hit the bleachers this season, a 10% year-over-year increase and the highest figure since 2017.
• Average MLB game times fell nearly half-an-hour to less than 2 hours and 40 minutes, the lowest figure in nearly four decades.
• Highlight-reel plays like stolen bases reached near-record levels, contributing to a 7% annual bump in regular-season TV ratings.

Speaking of stolen bases… Taco Bell’s annual “Steal a Base, Steal a Taco” contest is in full effect this World Series, with the first successful stolen base on either side resulting in one free taco to all Americans who use the chain’s app.

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💬 Quoted… “I don’t like [that] every time a male and female character are together on screen, studios feel the need to make them fall [in] love.”

• Sex may sell – but Gen Z isn’t buying. According to UCLA’s newly-published annual Teens and Screens report, which covers US residents between the ages of 13 and 24, many younger Americans are looking for fewer sex scenes on TV and in movies. Researchers found nearly half of US adolescents and young adults (47.5%) think sex isn’t necessary to the majority of TV show and movie plots, and 51.5% would like to see more content depicting friendships and platonic relationships.

💰 Stat of the Day (Taylor’s version): Taylor Swift is one of the first entertainers to reach billionaire status based on music and performing alone, with Swift’s ongoing Eras Tour – which concludes late next month – pushing the pop/country mega-star’s net worth to $1.1 billion, per Bloomberg. Overall, Swift’s 53 US concerts so far this year have added an estimated $4.3 billion to America’s GDP.

🤔 Did You Know?... In 1840, the average onset of menstruation for girls occurred at age 17; by 2000, the average had fallen to 12 years old.

📰 Worth a Read: What causes earthquakes? A geologist explains where they’re most common and why → (The Conversation)

• ☝️ NASA recently completed a successful field test of its new nuclear-powered Dragonfly rotorcraft, which is set to begin soaring through the thick atmosphere of Saturn’s largest moon by the middle of next decade.

BUSINESS & MARKETS

in partnership with Finance Buzz

• 💰 US markets closed down across the board (S&P: -1.2%; Dow: -0.8%; Nasdaq: -1.8%). | 🇺🇸 US GDP grew at a better-than-expected 4.9% seasonally- and inflation-adjusted annual rate in Q3, more than double its Q2 pace, per gov’t figures released yesterday.
• 🪙⚖️ Sam Bankman-Fried took the witness stand yesterday to give a preview of his testimony to help the judge decide what topics would be allowed to come up during the real thing today.
• 📦 Amazon reported quarterly earnings outpacing analysts' estimates; revenue increased 13% and its profit tripled. | 🚗 Ford posted mixed earnings yesterday and withdrew its full-year guidance in light of a tentative UAW labor deal; the company will also postpone ~$12 billion in EV investment due to low North American demand.

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SPORTS, MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT

• 🎶🤖 ​​The last “new” Beatles song will be released next week – 60 years after the onset of Beatlemania, and with two of the quartet now dead – thanks to new AI technology.
• 🎤🏆 The 2023 Billboard Music Awards nominees were announced yesterday; Taylor Swift led all artists with 20 nominations, followed by Morgan Wallen and SZA with 17 apiece.
• 🏈 Thursday Night Football: The Buffalo Bills defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24-18 behind 324 passing yards and three total TDs from QB Josh Allen.

SCIENCE, SPACE & EMERGING TECH

in partnership with Paleovalley

• 🗺️📲 Google announced a series of new AI-enabled updates to Maps, including an "Immersive View" for route planning and more accurate real-time information.
• 🪐 Venus once had plate tectonics similar to Earth several billion years ago, indicating the planet may have been hospitable to life at some point, per a new study published in Nature Astronomy.
• 🪞🐓 Roosters may be able to recognize their own reflection in mirrors, joining a growing group of species – including elephants, dolphins, great apes, and certain fish and birds – which have passed self-recognition tests in recent years.

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MISCELLANEOUS

• 🚨 A 40-year-old male US Army reservist suspected of killing at least 18 people and injuring 13 others in a pair of mass shootings in Lewiston, Maine, on Wednesday night was still at large as of late yesterday evening; the overall casualty count announced by officials yesterday was lower than initial reports.
• 🏛️ Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) pleaded guilty to a criminal misdemeanor for pulling a fire alarm in a House office building three weeks ago; Bowman will pay a $1,000 fine and serve three months of probation.
• ⚖️🗳️ A federal judge ordered Georgia to redraw its political districting maps before the 2024 election, ruling the current maps drawn by GOP politicians violate the federal Voting Rights Act by diluting the voting power of Black residents. (From the Left | From the Center | From the Right)

CLICKBAIT

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When thinking of his childhood in the 1930s, many of 94-year-old Malcolm Stern's fondest memories are in the back of his father's bright yellow Talbot Darracq. 

So, when Malcolm invested in a 3D printer a few years ago, one of the first creations he wanted to build was a replica of his father's beloved car.

🚙 What are the chances... As Malcolm scrolled the internet looking for reference photos for his model, he stumbled upon an ad for the same car being sold at an auction nearby. 

• While he had an inkling it might be the one (I mean, how many highlighter yellow vintage Talbot Darracqs could there be out there), he still couldn't believe it when it turned out to be his father's old car all these years later.

❤️ Doing it for dad: Malcolm has spent the last three years restoring the car back to it's nearly original state. 

• "I'm still very excited, very surprised that I'm 94, able to be here and do this and still be fit enough to go out in the car for a ride," he told the BBC. "I think my father would be very proud, he'd be very excited as well." 

Coming at you hotter than the sidewalks of Phoenix, it’s the DONUT’s weekly news quiz.

Find out how your news superpowers stack up against our team.

Below are three lists of ingredients. All you have to do is give us the completed dish they make.

☝️ Recipe #1:

• Italian sausage
• Red pepper flakes
• Bacon
• Onion
• Garlic
• Chicken broth
• Potatoes
• Heavy cream
• Spinach

✌️ Recipe #2:

• Sweet corn
• Chicken thighs
• Chili powder
• Salt & pepper
• Canola oil
• Poblano peppers
• Yellow onion
• Chipotle peppers
• Adobo sauce
• Chicken stock
• Russet potatoes
• Petite diced tomatoes
• Half and half
• Sour cream & cilantro for serving

3️⃣ Recipe #3:

• Dumpling skins
• Zucchini
• Green cabbage
• Mushrooms
• Onion
• Scallions
• Ground pork
• Ground beef
• Minced garlic
• Minced ginger
• Soy sauce
• Sesame oil
• Egg
• Salt & pepper

(keep scrolling for the answers)

☝️ Recipe #1: Zuppa toscana

✌️ Recipe #2: Chipotle chicken chowder

3️⃣ Recipe #3: Mandu (Korean dumplings)