Good morning. The SEC is widely expected to approve spot bitcoin ETF applications this week. If approved, it would essentially mean investors could access bitcoin through financial institutions that aren’t crypto exchanges, and not have to worry about buying a hardware wallet or securely storing private keys.

Much like if Ron Burgundy launched a business news show, this is a big deal in the financial world. More than a dozen asset managers have already filed applications to create a bitcoin ETF – and all were ready to hit the ground running when the SEC’s official X account posted a message yesterday saying it had approved the measure.

But, as it turns out, the SEC’s account had been hacked and the message was fake; the agency hasn’t yet made a decision. Apologies to all the crypto bros that prematurely dropped the post into a group chat accompanied with an “I told you so!!” – you’ll have to wait a little bit longer.

🚀⏰ Ready, Set, Go: Today’s news should be about a 4.99-minute read.

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“Quality is not an act, it is a habit.”

–Aristotle (384 B.C. – 322 B.C.)

For many Americans, insuring homes or cars has gone from a routine, manageable expense to one of the bigger line items on their household budget – if they manage to get coverage at all. (Isn’t adulting fun?)

A number of major US auto and home insurers are significantly hiking their rates in certain states – or even refusing to write and renew policies – due to an increased risk of costly natural disasters.

• Allstate is raising its auto insurance rates by an average of 15%-30% this year in California, New Jersey, and New York, who all agreed to the rate hikes after Allstate threatened to stop renewing coverage in those states.
• Farmers increased home-insurance rates by more than 23% last year for tens of thousands of policyholders in Illinois, Texas, and Tennessee.
• Nationwide has refused to renew more than 10,000 home-insurance policies for properties located in hurricane-prone areas of North Carolina.
• State Farm stopped writing new home-insurance policies in California last year, after racking up a record $13 billion in auto- and home-insurance losses in 2022. The company is also increasing rates for existing California home and auto policies by 20% this year.

The moves come as insurers attempt to recover from some of their worst years in history. US home and auto insurance companies racked up $32.2 billion in net losses over the first nine months of 2023, which is $7.6 billion worse than in the same period a year earlier, and ~$30 billion worse than in 2021.

At the same time, home and auto insurance premiums have spiked, outpacing inflation. Prices for car insurance rose at an annual rate of 19.2% in November, marking the 15th consecutive month of double-digit annual percentage increases, while US home insurance rates grew an average of 30%-50% last year.

📊 Flash poll: For all our US home and car owners: have you experienced a noticeable increase in your insurance rates for 2024?

• Yes
• No

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🇫🇷 President Emmanuel Macron appointed the youngest PM in France’s modern history. Gabriel Attal, 34, first rose to prominence as Macron’s government spokesperson, then later served as education minister. He’s the first openly gay politician to become France’s PM, and is now tasked with naming a new cabinet. Attal’s predecessor, Elizabeth Borne, resigned on Monday following political turmoil over an immigration law strengthening the government’s ability to deport foreigners.

🇨🇳 China surpassed Japan as the world’s largest car exporter. In a report published yesterday, China’s Passenger Car Association estimated that domestic automakers sold 5.3 million vehicles out of the country in 2023, or roughly 1 million more than Japan, the world’s previous leader. A large portion of China’s recent increase in international auto sales can be attributed to a 5x surge in purchases from Russia, after Western automakers left the Russian market when its ongoing war in Ukraine began in February 2022.

🇰🇷 South Korea banned the consumption of dog meat. The new law, set to come into force by 2027, stipulates that anyone who butchers or breeds dogs for human consumption could face 2-3 years in prison or a fine of up to $23,000. The centuries-old practice of dog consumption was common in the Asian country in the decades following the Korean War when meat was scarce, but became highly unpopular and rare after domestic incomes, pet ownership, and concern for animal welfare rose in the late 20th century.

A typical 33-ounce bottle of water – or one liter for the Europeans reading this – contains an average of 240,000 plastic fragments, or ~100x more than previously thought, according to a new peer-reviewed study published in PNAS.

The research from Columbia University marks the first-ever study to evaluate bottled water for the presence of “nanoplastics” – which are plastic particles under 1 micrometer in length, or 70x smaller than the width of a human hair.

• Nanoplastics are widely considered more dangerous to humans than microplastics (slightly larger plastic particles), since they’re small enough to penetrate human cells, enter the bloodstream, and impact organs.

The findings: To accomplish their novel study, Columbia researchers invented a new laser-based microscopy technology that was able to count the number of nanoparticles found in three popular brands of water sold in the US. They discovered between 110,000 and 370,000 tiny plastic particles in each liter 33-ounce bottle, with nanoplastics representing ~90% of that total.

🥤 Zoom out: The world produces more than 450 million tons of plastics each year, much of which eventually ends up in landfills next to your toxic ex-boyfriend. The vast majority of plastic doesn’t degrade naturally, but instead breaks down into smaller pieces over time and spreads across the Earth.

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Activist firm Elliott Investment Management has built a $1 billion stake in Match Group, the parent company of Hinge, Tinder, and other dating platforms, and plans to push for unnamed changes to turn the company’s performance around, according to a new report by the WSJ.

The move comes as Wall Street is swiping left on dating apps. Tinder, the biggest dating site in the world by user count, generated ~$1.8 billion in revenue in 2022, up 9% from 2021. Revenue for Hinge increased 44% year over year.

But while revenue is increasing, user growth is slowing – especially among Gen Z.

• An Axios survey of ~1,000 US college and grad students from November found 79% didn’t use any dating apps. In 2019, around half of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US reported using a dating app.
• Match’s value has reflected this trend accordingly. The company boasted a market cap around $40 billion in 2021, and closed yesterday's trading session with a market cap of $10.6 billion.

Looking ahead… Dating apps are still forecasting future revenue growth. And, since the pool of potential users is projected to largely remain unchanged or even decrease, this growth can really only come from one place – increasing the average revenue per user (by raising prices, adding paid features, etc.).

🤔 The conundrum: Dating apps are reportedly designed to be deleted… but the sooner the app gets deleted, the less money the company makes.

💬 Quoted… "The same great taste as Miller Lite, only without the beer."

• In a product release yesterday, Miller Lite unveiled its latest offering: Miller Lite-flavored Beer Mints. Why, you ask? According to a statement from the company, the reason is simple: “We created Beer Mints for the folks participating in Dry January who might miss the taste of Miller Lite while being out with friends this January.” Because people only drink it for the taste, of course.

👚 Stat of the Day: Since Shein, the China-founded fast-fashion retailer, is still privately held, not much is known about its finances. But we got a sneak peek into them yesterday from Jamie Salter, the founder and CEO of Authentic Brands Group, which is involved in a partnership with Shein. According to Salter, Shein’s revenue is “a lot more than $30 billion,” which would put it below retail giants like Walmart and Amazon, but solidly above brands like H&M ($22 billion), Abercrombie ($3.7 billion), and American Eagle ($5 billion). Shein has filed for a US IPO, which is expected to happen sometime this year.

🤔 Did You Know?... The US Constitution is the oldest active codified constitution in the world. The historical life expectancy of a constitution since 1789 has been about 19 years.

📰 Worth a Read: The curious case of the disappearing Hydrox cookies, the original chocolate sandwich cookie → (The Hustle)

• ☝️ Last year was officially the warmest on record dating back to 1940, according to a report published yesterday by the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

BUSINESS & MARKETS

in partnership with Incogni

• 💰 US markets closed mixed (S&P: -0.2%; Dow: -0.4%; Nasdaq: +0.1%). | 🌎 The global economy is on course to record its worst half-decade of growth in 30 years, according to a biannual World Bank report published yesterday.
• 🏘️ The National Association of Realtors’ president resigned this week due to a blackmail threat.
• 🚗 Honda unveiled two concept cars – the “Space-Hub” and “Saloon” – as a preview for a new lineup of EVs that will begin arriving in North America in 2026.

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SPORTS, MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT

• 🏈 The NFL this week offered voluntary buyouts to 200 of its 1,100 employees, per CNBC. | 👋 The Tennessee Titans fired head coach Mike Vrabel after six seasons.
• 📵 Meta plans to automatically restrict the content that teens can see on Instagram and Facebook; the social media giant is facing a lawsuit from 42 attorneys general claiming the sites harm kids.
• 🌌🍿 Lucasfilm announced a new Star Wars movie centered around the Mandalorian and Grogu (Baby Yoda) that will be directed by Jon Favreau; it starts production later this year.

SCIENCE, SPACE & EMERGING TECH

in partnership with Best Bodies for Life

• 🚀🌕 NASA delayed its Artemis II mission, which is set to be the first to send astronauts near the Moon since 1972, by about one year to September 2025; the move means the Artemis III mission, which aims to land humans on the Moon, is delayed until at least September 2026.
• 🤖 Volkswagen is adding a ChatGPT-powered chatbot to all vehicles equipped with its IDA voice assistant starting later this year.
• ⚡🌱 Delivering electric shocks to the roots of baby plants can boost their growth by up to 50%, per a new peer-reviewed study published in PNAS.

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MISCELLANEOUS

• 🦫⛽ Buc-ee's, the Texas-based chain of gigantic gas stations, is coming to North Carolina.
• 🏥 Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, America’s #2-ranked military official after the President, is being treated for complications due to prostate cancer, a condition that reportedly wasn’t disclosed to President Biden until Tuesday.
• ⚖️ Former President Trump appeared in federal court yesterday as part of a legal challenge that claims Trump is immune from charges that he plotted to overturn the 2020 election due to presidential immunity. (From the Left | From the Center | From the Right)

CLICKBAIT

• 🧠 Mind-blowing images from the field of neuroscience.

Guangdong, China, resident Wu Wuqiang is a professional slinky artist. 

🏆 Way cooler than sending it down the stairs... Wu Wuqiang started creating intricate slinky tricks in 2009, and showed off his skills on the Italian TV series Le Show dei Record last year.

• Wu set the world record for "most glass bottles trapped with a slinky in one minute" on the show, with 41 bottles successfully trapped and not knocked over.
• He created the unique record and had it officiated by Guinness Book of World Records; he's currently the only person to ever hold the title. 

Check him out in action here.

How it works: We provide an incorrect stat. Then you guess whether the actual number is over or under the stated value.

1. ⭐ 20: Number of stars in the Paramount Pictures logo.
2. ⛳ 350: Number of dimples on the average golf ball.
3. 🕯️ 95%: Percentage of candles that are purchased by women.

(keep scrolling for the answers)

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What to do: Copy your unique link below, then send it to anyone who you think would like the DONUT. Once you hit each milestone, you'll get an email with a link to claim your prize. (Pro tip: there's no need to ration points, you're entitled to a prize at each tier.)

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1. Over, the logo has 22 stars.
2. Under, the average golfball has 336 dimples.
3. Over, surveys show 96% of candles are purchased by women.