Good morning. In today’s edition:

• 📝 July’s jobs report raises concerns of a recession
• 🤔 NASA has a tough decision to make
• 🔥 Major League flamethrowers

… and more.

🚀⏰ Ready, Set, Go: Today’s news should be a ~4.74-minute read (1,261 words).

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"The greatest deception [humans] suffer is from their own opinions."

–Leonardo da Vinci (1452–1519)

In recent weeks, the US economy has shown a number of signs that its relatively strong post-pandemic performance is starting to slow down – and Friday’s jobs report marked the strongest such indicator to date.

The US economy added 114,000 jobs last month, well below economists’ predictions of 185,000 new jobs, according to new Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

• As a result, the US unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in June to 4.3% in July, representing a three-year high and nearly a full percentage point above the modern-era low set in April 2023 (3.4%).

The data officially triggered a recession “rule.” To be clear: the US economy is not currently in a recession. Major stock indexes are comfortably positive year-to-date, GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate last quarter, and the unemployment rate remains historically low.

However, when America’s jobless rate rises as fast as it has so far this year (from 3.7% in January to 4.3% in July), it strongly indicates a recession is on the horizon, according to the “Sahm rule” – an indicator developed by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm that’s correctly predicted all nine US recessions since the 1970s.

Yes, but: As financial ads say, past performance doesn’t (necessarily) indicate future results. Many economists say it’s too early to connect recent labor market turmoil to an impending recession, since July’s elevated unemployment rate can be attributed to rising US labor participation – which is beneficial for the economy – as well as temporary factors like Hurricane Beryl.

Looking ahead… July’s jobs report essentially guarantees the Fed will start cutting interest rates at its next meeting in September, which would mark the first rate cut since March 2020.

• The latest jobs data also raises the odds that the Fed will roll out larger-than-anticipated rate cuts to close out the year, which would bring down borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, credit cards, and other interest rate-based products.

📊 Flash poll: All things considered (employment situation, stocks, inflation, etc.), do you think your personal financial situation will be better or worse six months from today?

• Better
• Worse
• Unsure/other

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🇸🇩 The UN officially declared famine in Sudan’s Darfur region. Sudan’s ongoing year-long civil war has left 25+ million people on the brink of mass famine, representing the largest current hunger crisis in the world. The UN’s declaration on Thursday marked the third global famine assessment since the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, an international food security standard, was established in 2004.

🌎 The US suspended travel permits for four Latin American countries due to potential scams. On Friday, the Department of Homeland Security issued a temporary pause on new two-year travel permits for residents from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela over concerns their US sponsors may be illegitimate. The move follows an internal Homeland Security review which reportedly found ~3,200 sponsors were responsible for 100,000+ filings, and that 24 of the top 1,000 Social Security numbers used by sponsors corresponded to dead people.

🇷🇺 Russia legalized crypto mining and the use of crypto for international payments. Under the new laws, Russia’s Central Bank will be able to transfer money overseas using private digital currencies by the end of this year, allowing Russia to circumvent sanctions that currently cut it off from global payment networks. In a separate announcement, Russia unveiled plans to adopt a mass digital version of the ruble by July 2025.

NASA, like LeBron James in 2010, has a decision to make – send two “stranded” astronauts home on A) Boeing’s Starliner, or B) SpaceX’s Crew Dragon?

Background: Starliner’s first crewed mission, carrying two astronauts, blasted off on June 5. While approaching the International Space Station, the craft experienced helium leaks and thruster issues, forcing NASA and Boeing to delay the astronauts’ trip back home and work to resolve the issues.

Two months later, the astronauts are still onboard the space station – and have no official return date.

Option A: Send the astronauts back home on Boeing's Starliner as planned. Recent testing indicates 27 of its 28 boosters are operating as they’re supposed to, and that the craft has enough helium to support a return trip from the station.

• However – while testing has generated “significant” data, the root cause of the failures have yet to be identified, CNBC reports. Meaning if NASA sends the astronauts home on Starliner, they may be rolling the dice.

Option B: Send the astronauts home on SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft, which regularly flies to-and-from the ISS. Should NASA choose this option, the vote of no confidence could impact Boeing’s future involvement in the space program, which has already been marked by delays, technical issues, and heavy financial losses ($1.6 billion on the Starliner project to date).

👀 Looking ahead… There’s a more than 50-50 chance NASA chooses Option B, a source told Ars Technica. Return planning will continue this week, with a decision expected soon.

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“Responsibility for such a decision should rest with me.”

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has put the death penalty back on the table for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (☝️ right), the alleged mastermind of the 9/11 terror attacks, and two of his alleged accomplices. On Friday, Secretary Austin unilaterally rejected a plea deal agreed to earlier in the week by US military prosecutors, which would’ve seen the three defendants plead guilty to all 9/11-related charges and waive their right to appeal in exchange for avoiding the death penalty with lifelong prison sentences. When the plea deal was first announced last Wednesday, military prosecutors said it was the best – and perhaps only – way to resolve the 13-year-long case, since allegations that US officials previously tortured the three defendants means the death penalty is likely off the table in court. Two days later, Secretary Austin issued a terse memo overturning the plea deal without further elaboration, with his decision following backlash against the plea deal from some congressional lawmakers (mostly Republicans), as well as the families of some 9/11 victims.

• ☝ Tropical Storm Debby is expected to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall early this morning in Florida’s Big Bend region.

BUSINESS & MARKETS

in partnership with Beam

• 💰 US markets fell across the board on Friday (S&P: -1.8%; Dow: -1.5%; Nasdaq: -2.4%); the Nasdaq entered correction territory. | 💸 Berkshire Hathaway sold 390 million of its 790 million Apple shares in Q2; that’s on top of the 115 million Apple shares it sold in Q1; BH now boasts a cash reserve of ~$277 billion.
• 🏡 The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped 22 basis points to 6.4% on Friday, per Mortgage News Daily; it marks the lowest rate since April 2023.
• 🛢️ Chevron is relocating its headquarters from California (San Ramon) to Texas (Houston).

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SPORTS, MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT

• 🥇 The Olympics: Swimming star Katie Ledecky broke the record for most medals (14) and most golds (9) won by an American woman in any sport. | Tom Cruise will reportedly have a starring role – including parachuting and rappelling – in the August 11 closing ceremony. | Novak Djokovic of Serbia defeated Carlos Alcaraz of Spain to win the first Olympic gold medal of his illustrious career. | American Scottie Sheffler shot a course-record-tying 62 in his final round to win gold by a single stroke, becoming the first No. 1-ranked golfer to win the Olympics. | American Noah Lyles beat Jamaica’s Kishane Thompson by 0.005 seconds in the 100m dash to take home the gold, becoming the first American to win the event in 20 years. | See the overall medal count.
• 💔 Rapper Cardi B has filed for divorce from her husband, fellow rapper Offset.
• 🎤 Aerosmith announced it’s done touring after 50 years due to the severity of lead singer Steven Tyler's recent vocal injury. | 🏈 The Pro Football Hall of Fame formally inducted seven new members in a ceremony on Saturday.

SCIENCE, SPACE & EMERGING TECH

in partnership with 120/Life

• 🧬🌕 An international team of scientists have proposed creating a vault on the Moon filled with preserved samples of Earth’s most important and at-risk creatures, which could be used to clone and create new individuals in a worst-case scenario.
• 🦈 An endangered species of shark – called the smooth-hound shark – was found to have reproduced asexually for the first time, per a new study; this ability, called parthenogenesis (“virgin birth”), has been observed in ~1,000 invertebrate species and ~100 vertebrates (including lizards, crocodiles, and birds).
• 🤖 OpenAI has reportedly developed a method to detect when ChatGPT was used to write an essay or research paper with 99.9% certainty, though the company has no plans to release it; the project has been mired in internal debate despite being release-ready for about a year, per the Wall Street Journal.

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MISCELLANEOUS

• 🗳️ VP Kamala Harris has officially secured enough delegate votes to become the Democratic nominee for president in 2024, the DNC announced. | 💰 The Harris campaign said it raised $310 million in July, more than doubling the $139 million reported by former President Trump and his affiliated committees. | 🗣️ Trump said the previously scheduled September 10 presidential debate on ABC News was “terminated” when Biden dropped out of the race; Trump instead proposed a September 4 debate with Harris on Fox News, while Harris’ campaign said she’s committed to the original ABC News timeslot.
• 🏛️📲 The Justice Department sued TikTok over allegations the company violated COPPA, a children’s online privacy law, and broke the terms of a settlement with another government agency.
• 🌳☠️ A wealthy couple became local pariahs after poisoning their neighbor’s trees.

CLICKBAIT

• 🤔🕞 Why do some people always wake up at 3 am or 4 am?

⚾💨 Stat of the Day: Move over, Derek Zoolander – there’s a new gas-thrower in town. On Saturday night, rookie pitcher Ben Joyce of the Los Angeles Angels notched his first career save by striking out slugger JD Martinez with a fastball clocked at 104.7 MPH, marking the fastest strikeout pitch since the MLB began tracking such data in 2008. Joyce’s new record is the latest example of a growing trend: since 2007, the average MLB four-seam fastball has increased from 91 MPH to 94 MPH, while the number of pitches reaching 100+ MPH has quadrupled.

🤔 Did You Know? There were ~8,000 different kinds of currency used in the US from its inception to the Civil War, since banks would issue their own money rather than the federal government. It wasn’t until the National Banking Acts of 1863 and 1864 that America adopted the federally backed dollar.

📰 Worth a Read: Alcohol, Arrests, and Acrimony: The Troubled Legacy of America’s Chicken Dynasty → (WSJ)

Monday: The last week of Olympic action kicks off

Tuesday: Kamala Harris' first appearance with her yet-to-be-named running mate

Wednesday: Purple Heart Day

Thursday: One-year anniversary of the catastrophic Maui wildfires

Friday: 50th anniversary of President Richard Nixon’s resignation

On Friday, we covered how the recent surge in unauthorized migration at the US southern border has dissipated, with Border Patrol arrests falling for the 5th straight month in July to their lowest level since fall 2020.

❓ Our question to you: Do you personally consider unauthorized immigration to be: a crisis, fairly significant problem, minor problem, or not a problem for the US?

• Crisis: 37%
• Fairly significant problem: 29%
• Minor problem: 22%
• Not a problem: 12%

Click here to read the most thoughtful longform responses.

+Note on sample size: We received 3,771 votes and 388 longform responses.

Canadian chef Wallace Wong recently added nine new Guinness World Records to his proverbial menu with his lightning chopping skills. 

🔪 To make the super chopping even more impressive, he claimed a few of his titles – including most tomatoes cut in one minute, and fastest time to slice a bell pepper – while blindfolded.

• See him in action here. 

Guess the definitions of the following Greek/Latin root words:

1. Ambi
2. Ethn
3. Fili
4. Germin
5. Hypn

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1. Ambi = On both sides (e.g., ambivalent, ambidextrous)
2. Ethn = People (ethnic)
3. Fili = Son (filial)
4. Germin = Sprout (germination)
5. Hypn = Sleep (hypnosis)