Good morning. In today’s edition:

• 📝 Tariffs are here
• 🏀 Blockbuster trade upends NBA title odds
• 🐿️ Punxsutawney Phil’s Groundhog Day prediction

… and more.

Ready, Set, Go: Today’s news should be a ~4.40-minute read (1,170 words).

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"Even though you are on the right track – you will get run over if you just sit there."

–Will Rogers (1875-1939)

To borrow a phrase from Yoda: “Begun, the Clone Trade War has.” On Saturday, President Trump announced the first major tariffs of his second administration, in a move that sparked retaliatory measures and laid the groundwork for a global trade conflict.

As part of Trump’s order – which takes effect on Tuesday – the US will impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, 10% levy on energy products from Canada, and 10% tariff on all imports from China.

• The tariffs are being imposed “because of the major threat of illegal aliens and deadly drugs killing our Citizens, including fentanyl,” Trump posted on Truth Social.
• Senior Trump administration officials say there are no exemptions to the tariffs, which can be escalated if any of the countries impose retaliatory measures.

The impact

Canada, Mexico, and China are America's three largest trading partners, accounting for 42% of total US imports last year ($1.2+ trillion combined) and serving as essential suppliers for many domestic industries.

A few examples:

• Mexico is the largest supplier of fruit and vegetables to the US, while Canada leads in exports of grain, livestock and meats, poultry and more.
• More than 20% of all cars and light trucks sold in the US were built in Canada or Mexico.
• China supplies more than half (56%) of all shoes sold in the US.
• Canada supplies ~30% of lumber used in the US annually.
• The US gets 75% of its imported toys and sports equipment from China.
• Canada and Mexico are the largest and third-largest exporters of steel to the United States, respectively.

Countries targeted by tariffs weren’t too happy. On Saturday, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau announced a retaliatory 25% tariff on $100+ billion worth of US products. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she also plans to retaliate with tariff and nontariff measures, while China’s government said the new tariffs violate international rules and vowed to take unspecified countermeasures against the US.

Looking ahead…Trump administration officials say the tariffs will remain in place until the White House is satisfied the targeted countries have dealt with illicit fentanyl moving into the US.

• The new levies will apply to companies that import goods within the US, with at least some of the costs expected to be passed on to consumers.
• Overall, the tariffs effectively represent a tax of $830/year for the average US household in 2025, per estimates published Friday by the nonpartisan Tax Foundation.

📊 Flash poll: Do you agree with the Trump administration’s decision to impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China?

• Yes
• No
• Unsure/other

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Over the weekend, the Dallas Mavericks traded 25-year-old superstar Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers for 31-year-old big Anthony Davis and a 2029 first-round pick, in a multi-team trade that has NBA fans and players more surprised than at the end of a Knives Out movie.

• Dončić, who spearheaded the Mavs 2024 Finals run, is coming off five straight first-team All-NBA seasons, and led the league in scoring last year. He’s widely considered one of the best players in the NBA.

Why make the trade? The Mavs GM, Nico Harrison, told ESPN that "defense wins championships,” and that the move will make the team stronger overall (Dončić has been criticized for his defense, and also reportedly his conditioning).

The Mavs only spoke with the Lakers about a potential trade, according to Harrison – though analysts say the deal may have been better for them had it been shopped around.

• The New York Knicks in July gave up five first-round draft picks as part of a deal for Mikal Bridges – a talented player, but not considered to be on the same level as Dončić.

🎰 The move shook betting markets. Before the trade, the Lakers were +4000 to win the 2025 NBA Finals and +2500 to win the Western Conference, according to ESPN BET. As of this writing, those odds have shortened to +1600 and +850, respectively. Betting volume on the Lakers has also increased.

If you see a sad, blue-painted man who answers to “Tobias” wandering aimlessly around New York City, maybe give him a hug.

Yesterday – after 17,000+ shows and 82,000+ gallons of paint – the Blue Man Group played its final show in the Big Apple, where it’s been celebrating weirdness and inspiring sitcom writers with its antic-filled performances since 1991.

Where it all started: The group originated in NYC’s experimental art scene in the 1980s, and was vaulted into the mainstream by appearances on MTV and The Tonight Show with Jay Leno (where they ultimately appeared 17 times, including once to string Robin Williams upside down and use him as a human paintbrush), the NY Times reports.

Where it’s continuing: The long-running Chicago production shuttered last month, but audiences can still see the group’s PVC pipe-centric shows in Boston, Vegas, and Berlin. There’s also an Orlando reboot in the works, per the NYT.

In the know: Blue Man Group was purchased by Cirque De Soleil in 2017, which filed for bankruptcy in 2020. The Montreal-based circus, currently owned by private equity investors, cited the difficulty of filling theaters as its reason for closing the curtain on the NYC and Chicago productions.

🎭 Post-Covid…Live theater has been dealing with ballooning production costs, and is struggling to get butts back in seats.

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BUSINESS & MARKETS

• 📊 US markets were mixed last week (S&P: -1.0%; Dow: +0.3%; Nasdaq: -1.6%). | 🪙 Cryptocurrencies fell following news of the US tariffs; as of this writing, the CoinDesk 20 index, which measures the largest 20 digital assets by market cap, is down 19%; ether is trading at its lowest level since November.
• 🇨🇳 China's January factory growth came in below expectations.
• 🚗 US car insurance rates increased 15% nationwide last year; rates are expected to increase another 5% in 2025, according to Insurify, an online insurance agent and comparison-shopping site.

SPORTS, MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT

in partnership with Niphtio

• 🏀 Caitlin Clark’s #22 jersey was retired by the Iowa Hawkeyes’ basketball program in a ceremony yesterday afternoon. | ➕ WNBA expansion: Austin, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Nashville, Philadelphia, and St. Louis are all bidding to become the location of the WNBA’s 16th franchise.
• ⚖️ Elon Musk’s X added ​​Nestlé, Abbott Laboratories, Colgate-Palmolive, Lego, Pinterest, Tyson Foods, and Shell to its advertiser boycott lawsuit.
• 🏆🎶 The 2025 Grammy Awards ceremony took place last night in Los Angeles; winners include Beyoncé (Best Country Album) and Sabrina Carpenter (Best Pop Album); see the full list.

*From our partners: 🏄‍♀️ Surfing Bluesky? Niphtio is our favorite extension for bookmarks and organizing, and they’ve released a beta integration with Bluesky. The Chrome/Firefox extensions let you easily save posts from your Bluesky feed, add them to collections, annotate with notes, and retrieve them later with smart search. Sign up free for Niphtio here.

SCIENCE, SPACE & EMERGING TECH

• 👂 Humans try to perk up their ears when listening hard, like other animals – even though this ability was lost by our evolutionary ancestors millions of years ago, per a new study.
• 🧏 Ice Age Europeans as young as 10 had cheek piercings ~30,000 years ago, which likely signaled a person's membership in a group, per new research.
• 🧬 NASA scientists want to solve a mystery: Why did life "turn left?"

MISCELLANEOUS

in partnership with Quince

• ✈️💥 A medical jet crashed into a Philadelphia neighborhood ~30 seconds after taking off on Friday, killing all six people onboard as well as a person inside a vehicle and injuring 22 others.
• ⚖️ A federal appeals court struck down the US government’s longstanding ban on handgun sales to Americans between the ages of 18-20; the case is expected to reach the Supreme Court.
• 🏛️ President Trump fired Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; the widely expected move allows Trump to name a new director. | 🚨🏦 A former Fed senior adviser was arrested for allegedly stealing and selling Federal Reserve trade secrets to China.

*From our partners: 🥰 Gifts their heart desires – at a price you’ll love. Quince connects you directly with factories that make for the world’s leading designer brands to deliver premium luxury at an insanely low price. Cashmere, Italian leather handbags, jewelry, and more. Shop Quince’s Valentine’s Gift Guide.

The queue of jobs that help to avoid a queue is growing. Bookings for line-standing services rose 18% at the end of 2024 compared to 2023, according to Taskrabbit data shared with Axios.

In general, line standers can be commissioned to wait anywhere – Taskrabbit’s rates average $27/hour – including popular NYC pizza places, the DMV, or city hall. Designer shoppers often recruit line standers for sample sales, while some people even held spots at President Trump’s hush money trial.

But…Psychologist Maggie Mulqueen, in a 2023 piece for CNN, writes that waiting in line for yourself can have mental health benefits. And some businesses – like Franklin Barbecue in Austin, Texas, who banned professional line standers – have caught on to these arrangements.

Big picture: Gig workers on Taskrabbit aren’t the only ones playing the waiting game. Companies in New York, D.C., and LA offer similar services.

☝️ Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction is in: The famed prognosticating rodent did see his shadow on Groundhog’s Day yesterday in front of a ~40,000-person crowd, implying six more weeks of winter instead of an early spring. Though he is pretty inaccurate.

🤔 Did You Know? The most realistic film depiction of a psychopath is Javier Bardem's portrayal of Anton Chigurh in No Country for Old Men, according to a 2017 study.

📰 Worth a Read: How a camel herder became leader of a rampaging gang accused of genocide

🖱 Clickbait: How often you should wash your towels, according to science. 

Monday: Trump’s Cabinet nominees resume Senate confirmation hearings; National Golden Retriever Day

Tuesday: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to meet President Trump at the White House

Wednesday: National Weatherperson’s Day

Thursday: Deadline for federal workers to accept a buyout offered by the Trump admin

Friday: January jobs report

On Friday, we covered the results from the 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress, aka “America’s Report Card,” which were published last week by an Education Department agency.

❓ Our question to you: What do you think is needed to get America’s young students back on track?

• “I am a high school math teacher of 30 yrs. I believe everyone needs to learn to be mindful of time spent indoors and in front of screens. There needs to be more reading in homes. Parenting classes should be mandatory for all new parents!”
• “As a middle school educator, I firmly believe that kids shouldn't leave elementary school until they can read fluently. Targeted reading instruction early on is imperative for those who struggle. Kids need to be reading every single day.”
• “I strongly believe that schools should be device free. We have had declining test scores since the advent of devices, including both phones and tablets. Schools need to return to a focus on physical textbook learning and set aside all devices. They are only leading to loss of comprehension and concentration.”

Click here to read more of the most thoughtful longform responses.

+Note on sample size: We received 217 longform responses.

🍩 Alabama mom Sha’Nya Bennett gave birth in a Krispy Kreme parking lot last month when roads and businesses were closed during the area's record-breaking snowstorm. Krispy Kreme’s management offered the family free donuts for a year, and hopes to host baby Dallas’ first birthday party. To top it all off, the happy couple nicknamed their baby “Glaze.”

🎩 Happy belated Groundhog's Day to all who celebrate. Watch the official video of Punxsutawney Phil's big reveal here.

❄️ The International Snow Sculpture Championship took place in Breckenridge, Colorado, last week. Teams from around the world competed to build the most intricate and gravity-defying snow sculptures, with some putting in ~100 hours into their creation. Check out the results.

Guess the definitions of the following Greek/Latin root words.

1. Aer
2. Chore
3. Cogn
4. Digit
5. Juven

Okay not really, but you probably will feel a little closer to sparkly-unicorn-in-a-summer-meadow status after subscribing to Positive DONUT, our 1x/week good-news only newsletter. Also included: wellness tips, weekly puzzles, and more.

1. Aer = Air (e.g., aeronautics)
2. Chore = Relating to dance (choreography)
3. Cogn = Know (cognitive)
4. Digit = Finger (digital)
5. Juven = Young (juvenile)