Good morning. In this edition:

• 📝 America’s new record-low fertility rate
• 📱 TikTok ban update
• 🚫 The line no hurricane will cross

…and much more.

Ready, Set, Go: Today’s news should be a ~4.05-minute read (1,076 words).

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“The deeper the truth in a creative work, the longer it will live.”

–Sir Charlie Chaplin (1889-1977)

Despite all the new moms on your Insta feed, baby fever is gradually losing its grip on Americans across the country. The US fertility rate fell to an all-time low of ~1.6 children per woman in 2024, according to new CDC data published late last week.

• The agency also found ~3.63 million children were born in the US last year, down from an all-time high of 4.3 million in 2007.
• It marks the third-lowest annual figure of the past 40+ years, outside of 2020 and 2023.

What’s driving the trend?

Apart from in-laws not applying enough peer pressure, experts say there are a wide range of reasons why Americans aren’t having as many kids:

• Teen pregnancies have declined by 68% compared to 2007 levels, largely due to increased access to contraception.
• Women are increasingly opting to pursue higher education and establish fulfilling, high-paying careers, raising the “opportunity costs” associated with having a child.
• More younger Americans are delaying having children until they can financially support themselves. This point is increasingly occurring later in life, due to factors like student debt and rising costs of living.
• And speaking of rising costs: The price of childcare in the US increased by 263% between 1991-2024, or twice the level of inflation over the same period.

America isn’t alone. A large majority of the world’s richest countries have seen fertility rates plummet below replacement level (~2.1 children/woman) in recent decades, with the trend attributed to many of the same factors seen in the US. Some nations have implemented measures to increase birth rates, including government-run dating apps, expanded parental leave, and cash grants for having children.

Looking ahead…The Trump admin has also proposed several steps to increase falling US birth rates. These include an executive order seeking to expand access to IVF, as well as potential “baby bonuses” to encourage more couples to have kids.

📊 Flash poll: Which of the following best describes your opinion about America’s falling fertility rate?

• It’s a major problem
• It’s a minor problem
• It’s not a problem at all
• Unsure/other

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Good luck trying to find a time to meet on the economy’s Google Calendar this week. Uncle Sam has appointments with basically every major economic indicator over the next several days, with new data set to shed more light on the country’s economic health.

Setting the stage: By many standards—stock-market performance, consumer sentiment, retail sales, and inflation, for example—the US economy is going strong.

But several announcements and events this week will further clarify things:

• Jobs: Federal agencies will release new data on job vacancies/layoffs/quits (Tuesday) and private-sector hiring (Wednesday) ahead of the July jobs report (Friday).
• GDP: Analysts expect America’s Q2 GDP report on Wednesday to show an annualized growth rate of ~2.5%, roughly in line with averages in recent, non-pandemic years.
• Inflation: Fed officials are widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, while the central bank’s preferred measure of inflation will be published on Thursday.
• Earnings: Some of the biggest names in tech report earnings this week, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple.

What they’re saying: "It is the busiest I can remember in 25 years of working," ING economist James Knightley told Axios. "I can't think of a week that has seen such a concentration of A-list events."

It’s already started…President Trump yesterday afternoon announced a landmark trade deal with the EU, the first occurence in what's also shaping up to be a busy week of tariff-related news. Oral arguments begin Thursday in a case challenging the legality of many Trump tariffs, while Friday is the Aug. 1 deadline for the White House’s reciprocal tariff plan.

BUSINESS & MARKETS

• 🚂 Union Pacific, the biggest freight railroad in the country, and fellow rail giant Norfolk Southern confirm reports they’re in advanced talks to form America’s first ocean-to-ocean railway.
• 📱 TikTok will be banned in US if China doesn’t agree to cede control to an American majority owner by Sept. 17, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick says.
• 💳 Citigroup rolls out new premium credit card aimed at frequent travelers, has $595 annual fee; AmEx and Chase also set to launch updated cards this year.

SPORTS, MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT

in partnership with Thinking Huts

• 🍿 Marvel's Fantastic Four: First Steps opens to better-than-expected $118 million domestically.
• 🏆 Tadej Pogačar of Slovenia wins Tour de France for fourth time in six years. | Oakland A's rookie Nick Kurtz becomes first rookie in MLB history to hit four home runs in one game; also ties MLB record for total bases in a game (19).
• 🏈 NFL fines 100+ players for reselling Super Bowl tickets at a profit.

*From our partners: 🌎🎓 260M+ children worldwide lack access to education… Not from missing potential, but missing buildings. Solution? 3D-printed solar-powered schools, pioneered by Thinking Huts. Your donation today unlocks futures for generations of children. Be the reason a school gets built—support Thinking Huts here.

SCIENCE, SPACE & EMERGING TECH

• 🧬 Comprehensive new study of protein changes in different organs over time suggests aging is not linear, inflection point occurs around 50 years old.
• 💧 Arizona State researchers find Earth's continents experienced significant freshwater loss since 2002; 75% of world’s population lives in 101 countries that have been losing freshwater for the past 22 years.
• 🤖 OpenAI to release GPT-5, the latest version of its flagship large language model, in August; upgrade will reportedly include a new version of its video generator, Sora.

US, WORLD & POLITICS

• 🌏 Leaders of Thailand and Cambodia to attend peace talks today over ongoing deadly border conflict; at least 35 soldiers/civilians have been killed and 218,000+ people displaced (covering both sides) since border fighting broke out last Thursday.
• 🧑‍⚖️ “Doomsday Mom” receives additional life sentences in Arizona for conspiring to murder, ending yearslong legal saga.
• 🏛️ Indian police arrest man accused of running fake embassies for “Seborga,” “Westarctica,” and other made-up nations in New Delhi.

☝️ A new humanoid robot from Chinese firm Unitree Robotics recently showed off its athleticism with the world’s first robotic kip-up. The 55-lb R1 robot, which comes equipped with voice and image recognition AI, starts at ~$5,900.

🤔 Did You Know? No hurricane or tropical cyclone has ever crossed the equator due to the Coriolis effect, which stems from Earth’s rotation. This effect causes hurricanes to rotate counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere, steering them on curved trajectories that “quite literally cannot” cross the equator.

📰 Worth a Read: How an ancient Ice Age helped humanity flourish

🖱️ Clickbait: The 100 best podcasts of all time, according to TIME—with one major omission

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Monday: National Waterpark Day

Tuesday: IMF publishes semiannual World Economic Outlook Update

Wednesday: NTSB begins three-day hearing to investigate January mid-air collision b/t a helicopter and jet over Potomac River

Thursday: NFL preseason kicks off with Hall of Fame Game (Lions v. Chargers); the Women's British Open tees off in Wales

Friday: The Naked Gun hits theaters

On Friday, we covered President Trump’s sweeping new AI Action Plan aimed at ensuring America’s “global dominance” in artificial intelligence.

❓ Our question to you: In general, how do you feel about Trump’s new AI Action Plan?

• Support: 31%
• Oppose: 44%
• Unsure/other: 25%

Click here to read some of the most thoughtful longform responses.

+Note on sample size: We received 2,285 votes and 194 longform responses.

Guess the definitions of the following Greek/Latin root words:

1. Caud
2. Du
3. Fel
4. Lact
5. Phot

🏊‍♀️ 55-year-old Amy Gubser completed a jawdropping 29.6-mile, 17-hour swim through frigid, shark-infested waters off the coast of San Francisco. She had been planning the swim for over five years, and, other than a few jellyfish stings, completed it unscathed. 

🍎 The Regina Food Bank Community Food Hub is Canada's first full-scale, completely free grocery store. The unique food bank will allow customers full autonomy over what they bring home to their kitchens, rather than relying on the typical pre-chosen food selections.

💪 Melinda French Gates pledged to donate $1 billion over two years to individuals and organizations working on behalf of women and families.

+Note: These stories previously appeared in a June 2024 edition of Positive DONUT, our weekly newsletter surfacing all the good things you don't hear about in the news.

1. Caud = Tail (e.g, caudal)
2. Du = Two (dual)
3. Fel = Cat (feline)
4. Lact = Milk (lactose)
5. Phot = Light (photograph)

+Clue for the Games newsletter: Well, well, well…you want a clue for today’s Conjoiner sequence. Unfortunately, all we have today are wishes upon a star.