The Supreme Court heard arguments this week in a Louisiana redistricting case that could fundamentally reshape how race factors into US elections.
The case centers around Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, which prohibits laws or congressional maps that result in members of a racial group having less opportunity to elect candidates of their choice compared to other voters.
At issue is whether Louisiana lawmakers violated the Constitution when they drew new congressional maps in 2024.
- The new maps created a second majority-Black district in the state, after a previous map from 2022 was struck down by the courts for violating Section 2 because it only had one such district.
- Roughy 33% of Louisiana’s population is Black, while the state has six total congressional districts.
The arguments
In oral arguments on Wednesday, SCOTUS’ conservative majority appeared to side with a group of voters who claim that Louisiana’s map with two majority-Black districts violates the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause, since it sorts voters based primarily on their race.
The Court’s conservative Justices also suggested that Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act should eventually expire, and that lawmakers should be prohibited from using race as a factor in creating election districts.
On the flip side: The Court’s liberal Justices appeared to side with civil rights groups who defended Louisiana’s map with two majority-Black districts, arguing that without the ability to consider race, communities of color would remain politically marginalized as lawmakers would be able to legally dilute their votes through gerrymandered maps.
The stakes are high
If the Court rules that lawmakers can’t consider race when drawing congressional maps, analysts predict it would lead to widespread redistricting efforts across the country as states adapt to the new precedent.
In practice, the new maps without race as a factor would likely shift around a dozen House seats from Democratic to Republican control, particularly in deep-red states across the South, according to a NY Times analysis (gift link).
Looking ahead…SCOTUS will issue its decision in this case by June 2026 at the latest.
📊 Flash poll: In general, do you support or oppose Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act?
