Good morning, and welcome back from our Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples' Day break. In today’s edition:

• ✈️ Airfare is taking off
• 🛢️ Trump signs deal for Russian diesel
• 🗣️ #1 way to end a couples fight

…and much more.

Ready, Set, Go: Today’s news should be a ~4.21-minute read (1,121 words).

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“When you judge others, you do not define them, you define yourself.”

–Earl Nightingale (1921-1989)

It’s that time of the year to start booking flights for the holidays—though your wallet could be in for a bumpy ride.

Airfare prices are climbing ahead of the holiday travel season, with the latest US inflation data showing a 23.4% increase in August compared to the last year.

And data from flight-tracking platform Hopper shows prices surged even higher last month. As of the last week of September:

• Domestic round-trip tickets for Thanksgiving weekend averaged $402, up 31% from last year.
• Domestic round-trip tickets for the week of Christmas averaged $452, a 23% annual increase.

Airlines aren't exactly celebrating

Despite higher ticket prices, carriers aren’t necessarily seeing major profits. Many are facing soaring operating costs, particularly for jet fuel, the second-largest expense for airlines after labor.

The Iran war and ongoing disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed jet fuel prices to multiyear highs around $4.00-$4.50/gallon, and could force airlines to lower their Q4 profit forecasts if prices remain elevated.

Looking ahead: Two-thirds of holiday travelers (65%) hadn't booked any travel as of late September, with 42% of respondents saying they’re waiting in hopes of lower prices, per a new TPG/YouGov survey.

But the clock is ticking: industry data shows airfares typically spike sharply once November arrives, with some advisors reportedly telling clients to book as early as mid-October this year.

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For a growing number of American families, Sunday mornings now involve shin guards and Capri-Suns instead of Sunday school and sermons.

The booming US youth sports industry is increasingly encroaching on a time traditionally reserved for religious services, as weekend tournaments and travel leagues force parents to choose between their kids’ games and church attendance.

By the numbers: Sunday religious participation among parents of children ages 5-17 fell from 26.8% in 2003-07 to 16.7% in 2021-24, per a new Axios analysis of federal data.

• Meanwhile, the share of American youths participating in sports has climbed to an all-time high in 2025, based on Sports & Fitness Industry Association data dating to at least 2012.
• Youth sports blossoming into a billion-dollar US industry has also resulted in more games moving to Sundays, something less common a generation ago.

A scheduling Hail Mary

For many families, the conflict stems from an increasingly demanding sports calendar as youth sports has blossomed into a ~$40 billion industry. Weekend tournaments now typically feature early-round games on Saturdays, followed by elimination rounds and championships on Sundays.

Big picture: Youth sports are only one piece of America's broader decline in religious participation. Overall, the US has seen one of the fastests shifts away from religion in modern history over the past decade-plus. Less than half of Americans (49%) say religion is essential to their daily life, down from 66% in 2015.

BUSINESS & MARKETS

• 🛢️🇷🇺 President Trump signs deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel in exchange for temporarily waiving US diesel sanctions on Moscow, in an effort by Trump to lower US prices; Trump later declares an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, though Moscow’s attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure still continue.
• 🏆 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences awarded to US academics Robert Hall and Michael Woodford for their work on models that’ve helped governments and central banks manage economic shocks like inflation and energy crises.
• 📲 Dating app Bumble reportedly in advanced talks to go private at a ~$1 billion valuation; shares closed trading up ~50%.

SPORTS, MEDIA, & ENTERTAINMENT

• 🏈 College football: Georgia rises to #1 in this week’s AP Top 25 poll with Saturday’s win over #6 Alabama; Bulldogs are followed by #2 Notre Dame, #3 Miami FL, #4 Ohio St., and #5 Indiana. | NFL: See a full recap of Week 5 action.
• ⚾ MLB: The Brewers jumped out to a 2-0 NLCS lead against the Dodgers, while the Rays lead the Guardians 1-0 in the ALCS. | 🏀 WNBA Finals: Atlanta Dream will face the Golden State Valkyries in best-of-7 series, with Game 1 scheduled for Saturday; either team would become first-time champions.
• 🍿 Other Mommy, starring Jessica Chastain, debuts at #1 with $27.5 million at the domestic box office; The Social Reckoning, Aaron Sorkin-led sequel to 2010 hit The Social Network, bombs with $5.5 million in domestic debut. | 🧑‍⚖️ Russell Brand’s criminal trial on charges of rape, sexual assault, and indecent assault begins in London. | 🙏 RJ Mitte, actor born with cerebral palsy who played Walter White Jr. on Breaking Bad and became a disability rights champion, died at 34.

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SCIENCE, SPACE, & EMERGING TECH

• 🚨🤖 Anthropic AI model independently submitted a false homicide tip to Philadelphia police in July which was caught by spam filters; Anthropic discovered the incident in late September, then alerted police and disconnected internal AI tests from live internet access.
• 💉 Health Secretary RFK Jr. announces new vaccine injury initiative and NIH research clinic to study suspected vaccine injuries; moves include proposing payments to doctors who report serious side effects, and upgrading to the CDC’s vaccine safety monitoring system.
• 🍟 Cutting back on ultra-processed foods for four weeks linked by researchers to fewer depression symptoms, per new small clinical trial.

US, WORLD, & POLITICS

• 🕊️ Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Navanethem "Navi" Pillay, a South African-born jurist and former UN human rights chief, for her efforts to promote peace and international law, including helping prosecute war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide.
• 🏛️ Home of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) raided by federal agents in Washington, D.C., as part of reported ‘immigration-related’ criminal investigation; Omar denies the underlying allegations and says the search is politically motivated. | Federal judge issues temporary restraining order blocking the broadcast of taxpayer-funded pro-Trump TV ads.
• 🚀 Missile strikes on Saudi Arabia by Iran-backed Houthi militants hit international airport in Riyadh, killing at least 12 people and injuring 300+ in the deadliest attack in Saudi Arabia over a decade; Saudi military officials have vowed to retaliate.

☝️ Chicago sports icon Mike Ditka, an NFL Hall of Famer who won Super Bowls as both a TE and head coach with the Bears, died at 86. Ditka, aka “Da Coach” or “Iron Mike,” was head coach of the championship winning 1985 Bears, arguably the most heralded season in league history. The Bears honored Ditka with tributes, helmet decals, and a pregame moment of silence before Sunday’s game against the Packers.

🤔 Did you know? The Bulwer-Lytton Fiction Contest was an annual competition from 1982-2024 where participants were asked to create the worst possible opening line for a novel. The final winning entry, from two years ago, is this line from Lawrence Person: “She had a body that reached out and slapped my face like a five-pound ham-hock tossed from a speeding truck."

📰 Worth a read: When murder's your job in the world's safest country

🖱️ What we’re clicking:

• The #1 way to end a couples fight before it escalates
• Extra shoe cushioning could actually increase stress
• Are wormholes a scientific dead end?

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On Friday, we covered new polling data that shows Americans are feeling less confident in the federal government's ability to ensure food safety than any year since Gallup first started asking that question in 1999.

❓ Our question to you: How confident are you that the food you buy at the grocery store is safe to eat?

• Very confident: 13%
• Somewhat confident: 35%
• Neutral: 17%
• Not very confident: 23%
• Not at all confident: 12%

Read some of the most thoughtful longform responses.

+Note on sample size: We received 701 votes and 60 longform responses.

On which finger does your nail grow the slowest?

A) Thumb

B) Index

C) Middle

D) Ring

E) Pinky

(keep scrolling for the answer)

🌳 A Virginia couple transformed their overgrown, one-acre backyard into a "miniature state park" for just $900. Over six months, the couple created winding walking trails, native gardens, and wildlife-friendly spaces that attract butterflies, hummingbirds, bees, and more.

E) Pinky

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