So… is SBF actually going to prison?

Since FTX breathed its last non-bankruptcy breath on November 11, Sam-Bankman Fried, the crypto exchange’s founder and former CEO, has been in the news – as Bob Uecker would say – juuuuust a bit.

And this recent press tour has many, including all 13 members of our team, wondering a) is this guy releasing a book soon? and b) will he actually end up in prison?

Short answer: maybe. While no official charges have been brought as of yet, here are three ways this could potentially play out for SBF.

• Criminal charges for violating bank, wire, and securities laws (aka fraud). Though, as securities lawyer and former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti told CNBC, securing a criminal conviction for fraud is usually difficult since it requires proving malintent beyond a reasonable doubt.
• Civil enforcement actions brought down by the SEC, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and/or state banking and securities regulators (i.e., fines and other non-jail time penalties).
• Class action lawsuits brought by millions of FTX creditors.

🤔 What’s next?... The DOJ and SEC are both probing FTX’s collapse, per the WSJ, and in close contact with each other. And let’s not forget the the Securities Commission of The Bahamas, where FTX was headquartered, who is claiming it has jurisdiction and actually filed a separate case in New York bankruptcy court.

As for SBF? More interviews, probably. Legal sources told CNBC the disgraced founder seems to be pursuing a “bad businessman legal defense strategy,” which involves claiming incompetence in lieu of malintent. Fun fact: This strategy was also used by at least two defendants in the Enron fraud case (it didn’t work).