The latest inflation report just dropped

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), America’s most widely-used measure of inflation, could be at the mall, the club, really anywhere you find it, it’s going down.

According to Labor Department figures released yesterday morning, inflation stood at 4.9% over the year-long period ending in April, down slightly from 5.0% in March. It’s the index’s lowest annual figure in exactly two years.

But while inflation may be down on an annual basis, it actually increased 0.4% from March to April. This rise was driven mainly by a 0.4% hike in shelter costs – which collectively make up over one-third of the entire CPI – as well as a 4.4% monthly increase in the cost of used cars and trucks.

• The core index, which excludes often-volatile food and energy prices, also rose 0.4% month over month.
• That’s the same level as three of the previous four months, with the exception of February (which was 0.5%).

📸 Big picture: The CPI has now fallen for ten straight months, down from a four-decade high of 9.1% last June.

And while there’s still a gap between the current inflation reading (4.9%) and the target the Fed is shooting for (2.0%), investors are overwhelmingly predicting the US central bank won’t raise interest rates for an 11th straight time next month, per data from derivatives exchange operator CME Group that was collected post-CPI.