The most wonderful shopping time of the year is in full swing

Welcome to Cyber Monday – the biggest online shopping day of the year, with ~$12 billion expected to change hands over the 24-hour period. And it comes on the heels of two other online shopping record days.

• Thanksgiving: US shoppers spent $5.6 billion online, a record for the day and a 5.5% increase year over year, according to Adobe Analytics.
• Black Friday: US shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion, per Adobe, up 7.5% from last year.

The biggest winner so far: Mobile shopping, which is expected to overtake desktop buying this holiday season for the first time, according to Adobe Analytics. Smartphones accounted for $5.3 billion of all online sales on Black Friday, up 10.4% year over year. Plus, a record 79% of all shopping traffic on the day – both browsing and buying – was carried out on mobile handsets.

The lay of the land: Data shows the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday is when many shoppers manifest Santa and get their holiday gift shopping done. Four in 10 consumers plan to fill up their sleighs and complete all of their seasonal shopping from Black Friday to Cyber Monday, according to a survey by Deloitte. And data from the National Retail Federation indicates that 182 million people are expected to shop between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday this year, marking the highest turnout of holiday shoppers since 2017.

However – these holiday sales projections and record spending over the past few days directly contrast weak guidance from retailers. Over the past few weeks, many retailers, including Walmart, Nordstrom, and Target have said shoppers have made fewer store trips, postponed big purchases, or held out for better deals. Lowe’s, Best Buy, and Kohl’s have all cut sales forecasts. And even some retailers that raised their outlooks, such as Dick’s Sporting Goods, referred to dynamics outside of their control that could dampen spending.

• Bank of America found that out of 43 retailers that issued earnings forecasts, 37 (or 86%) came in lighter than expected.

👀 Looking ahead… The National Retail Federation, an industry trade group, estimates that overall holiday sales in November and December of this year will reach between $957 billion and $967 billion. That’s a 3%–4% increase from last year, which is in line with pre-pandemic levels but not as high as the past two years. Holiday sales rose 5.3% in 2022 and 12.7% in 2021.

P.S. In the shopping mood today? Here are 175 Cyber Monday deals.