POV: consumers shopping for Easter candy this week

Chocolate prices and college students on spring break have something in common – they’re both really high rn. On Friday, cocoa futures closed at a record $8,939 per metric ton, a 12% increase over the previous week and 205% higher than this time last year.

And, in news that’ll make Willy Wonka’s supply chain team as unhappy as Augustus Gloop, there doesn’t appear to be any relief in sight. The price of cocoa, a key ingredient in chocolate, has been steadily marching upward since mid-2022 – and the crystal ball says it’s got more room to run.

The issue: About 70% of the world's cocoa beans come from four West African countries: Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon. These countries all lie within a tropical zone around the Equator, providing ideal climate conditions for growing cocoa trees.

And therein lies the rub – the weather. Massive rains, followed by a dry spell coupled with winds have created harsh growing conditions for the beans. Pests and disease haven’t helped either.

• This weather- and- disease- induced growing problem is causing cocoa harvests to come up short for the third year in a row, with the future still in flux, per NPR.
• The cocoa market will be short 374,000 tons this season, up from a shortfall of 74,000 tons last season, according to the International Cocoa Organization.

👀 Looking ahead… US chocolate prices are already elevated – they increased 11.6% in 2023 compared to the previous year – and Hershey’s and Cadbury-maker Mondelez have warned they’ll go even higher.