‘Tis the season to apply… and apply…

The winter holidays are known for chaotic shopping. But this year, the tougher competition might be on the other side of the register, as many seasonal workers across the US line up for jobs that aren’t showing up in the same numbers.

Searches for holiday jobs are up 27%, but actual job postings have risen only 2.7%, according to recent data from job site Indeed.

• Overall, retailers are projected to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers in 2025, down sharply from 442,000 last year, per the National Retail Federation.
• A separate estimate from Challenger, Gray & Christmas projects that holiday staffing will drop to its lowest level in over a decade.

For shoppers, it could mean longer lines and slower checkouts. For job seekers, it means more competition for fewer roles.

Driving the trend…A combination of economic factors—including the recent federal gov’t shutdown, tariffs, and other business uncertainties—means retailers are more likely to tread carefully when it comes to seasonal hiring, instead of ramping up.

• It’s also part of a larger shift that began after the pandemic.
• Some retailers started hiring earlier in the year to avoid last-minute staffing shortages, leaving fewer traditional seasonal roles available when the holidays roll around.

Big picture: Even with holiday hiring looking softer this year, the broader US job market is still in decent shape, according to the latest gov’t data. The delayed September jobs report showed steady job gains and relatively low unemployment, though wages continue to rise slower than inflation. Separate data published last week found the overall US unemployment population grew to a four-year high, even though layoffs didn’t rise sharply during the shutdown.